Houston Texans vs New York Giants: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 7

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX · FOX

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Houston is 2-4 overall but has won back-to-back road games, outscoring Tennessee and Jacksonville by a combined 31 points. New York is coming off a tough loss to New Orleans, and while starting a new QB and winless in their last two games at 3-2-1 they are still atop the weak NFC East. The oddsmakers see this as the biggest gap of Week 7 with the Texans a double-digit favourite.

Over 42.5 Total Points: -116

Both offences have been live lately: Houston and Jacksonville combined for 65 points in Week 6, and New York has gone for totals of 54 and then 61 in its last two games. McCarthy led the Giants to three late scoring drives in the last game where he had the offence cooking. Houston's defence is allowing 23.8 ppg this season, and I don't see that changing against a Giants offence can move the ball with McCarthy. My call is Over 42.5.

Nico Collins Over 69.5 Receiving Yards: -105

Collins has cleared this number in two of his last three games, 118 yards against Dallas and 74 against Jacksonville, with a quieter 56-yard week against Tennessee between them. New York will be without cornerback Colton Hood, out with a concussion, while Greg Newsome II plays through a groin issue. That depleted secondary against Houston's top target is why I like Collins to clear this number again.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Houston side

Stroud threw three touchdowns in the win over Jacksonville, with Collins and the rest of the receiving corps healthy. The catch: Houston is 0-3 at home this season, with losses to Buffalo, Cincinnati and Dallas and their turnaround winning two in a row was on the road and then last week in London.  Houston is averaging 24.0 ppg and allowing 23.8 ppg, and its last two results swung from a defensive 26-3 win over Tennessee to a high-scoring 34-31 win in Jacksonville.

The New York side

McCarthy will make his first start of the season and first for the Giants after coming to them in a trade with the Minnesota Vikings this season. In taking over for Jameis Winston in the  27-34 loss to New Orleans last week he passed for 243 yards with a TD and a pick in the fourth quarter alone. Tackles Jermaine Eluemunor and Andrew Thomas are both questionable, but McCarthy is a mobile QB. New York is averaging 22.7 ppg but allowing 23.3 ppg, and its own defence, missing some key players due to injury, has not slowed anybody down.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Houston Texans Moneyline	Over 43 Total Points
-526	-110
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Houston's Bet365 moneyline of -526 implies a de-vigged win probability of 80% for the Texans against 20% for the Giants. My own number sits close to that, around 81%. I think the 42.5 total is on the low side with Stroud playing well and the shaky defence of New York. The market has the winner right; the value for me is in the scoring pace, which is why the Over total is my preferred NFL pick.

I'm backing Houston to win by two scores or more, with the total clearing 42.5. Collins should have another solid day against New York's thin secondary, and Houston's front gets enough pressure on a shaky tackle duo to force the pressure. The final score is Houston Texans 30, New York Giants 16, a 46-point total, clearing 42.5 with a 14-point margin covering the spread.