Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 9

Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD · Prime Video

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Lamar Jackson's season is in real jeopardy after a thumb injury that needed surgery and a trip to injured reserve, and Baltimore turns to Joe Fagnano, an undrafted rookie, for Thursday's game. Jacksonville, at 5-2 and alone atop the AFC South, catches the Ravens in the middle of a three-game slide. This week's NFL prediction odds reflect that mismatch about as clearly as any game on the board.

Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5: -119

I'm backing the Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 at -119. Fagnano takes over a Baltimore offence that has faltered without Jackson in under center and in their last two games have been outscored 71-23. With a third-string QB taking over a struggling offense I don't see enough here to keep Thursday night inside single digits facing a 5-2 Jags team. 

Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -111

Derrick Henry has scored eight rushing touchdowns in eight games this season, a pace of exactly one per outing. With Fagnano making his first start, the Ravens will run more than they already do often. Henry will get a heavy workload and punch one in. At -111, the anytime touchdown bet has solid value odds for the star RB.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Baltimore side

Fagnano went 10 of 21 for 91 yards with an interception and a lost fumble in relief during a 36-10 loss to Buffalo in the Ravens last game. That was the first action of his career so far. Tyler Huntley didn't practice Monday with a toe injury and has no clear timetable and is listed as doubtful. Baltimore is averaging 22.4 ppg while allowing 25.4 ppg, and they have not scored over 13 points in any of the last three games. 

The Jacksonville side

Jacksonville is 5-2, alone atop the AFC South, and the Jaguars have won four of their last five, including  a 42-7 blowout of Indianapolis this past Sunday with Trevor Lawrence directing an offence averaging 28 ppg, which ranks fifth in the league. The Jags have also been legit on the defensive side of the ball ranking second in the NFL only giving up an average of 15.9 ppg.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Jaguars -8.5	Under 42.5
-119	-110
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Jacksonville's moneyline odds of -500 at Bet365 imply a de-vigged win probability of 80% for the Jaguars against 20% for Baltimore. My own number sits close to that, around 81%, so I'd call this an efficiently priced game rather than a hidden mismatch. The deciding factor for me is Fagnano's lack of experience: one relief appearance with a turnover and a lost fumble is a small sample size to trust against a solid Jacksonville defence, and that is the reason I like the Jaguars even giving 8.5 points. 

Baltimore Ravens: Last 5 Games

Jacksonville Jaguars: Last 5 Games

I'm backing Jacksonville to win by two scores 27-13 while Thursday night stays under the total. Baltimore's offense is sputtering and asking a rookie making his first career start to operate behind a patchwork line against Jacksonville's front is a tough assignment. A 27-13 final clears the spread comfortably and lands under the 42.5 total.