NFL Conference Championship Weekend Spread Picks NFL Betting Odds

Alex Murray
By:
Alex Murray
27 Jan 24
Betting Magazine
NFL betting top 10
NFL Conference Championship Weekend Spread Picks NFL Betting Odds

For the second straight week in the playoffs, we split our spread picks 2-2. Who knew the Packers were actually the real deal? But it does serve us right for betting against Patrick Mahomes… though we might do it again this week. We won’t be looking at moneyline favorites, but instead, we’ll be making the best value point spread pick for both NFL Conference Championship weekend matchups thanks to all the best NFL betting odds from the top NFL betting sites and betting apps.

Highlights

  • Ravens will hand Patrick Mahomes his first road playoff loss
  • 49ers will advance to the Super Bowl, but they might find it tougher than most think
  • Two No. 1 seeds will meet in the Super Bowl for the 14th time since 1975
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NFL Conference Championship Weekend Betting Odds - January 28, 2024

All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens - 3:00PM, Sunday, January 28

TeamMoneylinePoint SpreadTotal
Kansas City Chiefs+165+3.5 (-110)O44.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens-200-3.5 (-110)U44.5 (-110)

There hasn’t been quite as much media attention on this meeting of titans, but there really should be, because this is a matchup of the two best quarterbacks in the NFL at the moment. Kudos to presumptive MVP Lamar Jackson and reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes.

No matter what you think of Josh Allen and the Bills, these are the two best teams in the league because not only do they have elite QBs, they also have top notch defenses.

I don’t care how many rules they change to make it easier to score in the NFL, an elite defense is always the path of least resistance to a Super Bowl. In this matchup, we have the top two defenses in the NFL in terms of points allowed. Though we don’t think they’re going to keep those numbers up on Sunday.

Jackson and Mahomes are too good to hold down on an occasion such as this, so the key in this game for these defenses is to make splash plays by creating turnovers and creating pressure, and the Ravens do both of those things better than anyone.

The Ravens led the league both in takeaways and sacks. They forced two or more turnovers in eight of their last 10 regular season games, but the scariest part is that they completely shutdown the Houston Texans, one of the best offenses in the league, without a single sack or takeaway last week.

What makes matters worse is that the Chiefs will be without All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, which is pretty darn unlucky, because the guy who would have been lining up across from him is Justin Madubuike, who has 13 sacks this season—from the defensive tackle position.

Center Creed Humphrey has also been gutting it out with ailments of his own. If the Chiefs can’t shore up their inner protection, it could be a long day for Mahomes, reminiscent of his plight in his Super Bowl loss to the Buccaneers.

The Chiefs defense is arguably the best in the league, but their best cover linebacker, Willie Gay Jr., is questionable with a neck injury, which is awful news with Isaiah Likely balling and Mark Andrews returning from injury. Kansas City’s middling run defense is also a worry, as the Bills put up 182 on the ground against them last week.

Mahomes will be back, but it feels as though the stars are aligning for Baltimore with Andrews and Marlon Humphrey returning while Thuney is out and Gay and RB Isiah Pacheco are both questionable for the game. The Ravens are 6-3 ATS as home favorites this year, and we like them to keep that trend up and cover a -3.5 point spread.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers - 6:40PM, Sunday, January 28

TeamMoneylinePoint SpreadTotal
Detroit Lions+350+7.0 (+100)O51.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers-357-7.0 (-120)U51.5 (-110)

In Sunday’s late game, we get one team making its fourth trip to the NFC Championship in five years, and one team that’s making its second trip ever. It’s also a battle of two of the best offenses in football, but more importantly, the two most balanced as well: the San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions are the only two teams in the NFL with top five pass and run offenses.

Coincidence? I think not. Having a balanced attack is crucial because it allows you to find offensive success in a variety of scenarios. Say what you will about Kyle Shanahan’s brutal record when losing going into the fourth quarter, but he and Brock Purdy heard those numbers and scoffed at them last week by winning a game in fourth-quarter comeback fashion.

Of course, Christian McCaffrey was also a big reason for that, and he could be the x-factor this week as well. He’s been essentially unstoppable this year, but the Lions come in with the second best rushing defense in the NFL. And they’re kind of hitting their stride right now, as they haven’t allowed 100 yards rushing since Week 14, giving up just 67.8 rush yards per game during that span.

Detroit’s pass defense is as bad as you can imagine, however, so it’s a good thing that Deebo Samuel is ready to go, because he should be busy. As long as it’s not raining, Purdy should be able to slice and carve that Lions secondary up at will—though we wouldn’t be surprised if Jared Goff does the same on the other side.

While we like the 49ers to pull out a win here, the Lions’ offense simply has too many weapons to be blown out. Goff will keep them within shouting distance, which means this spread is way too big. San Francisco beat the Packers, but they really shouldn’t have, and we’re not sure those issues can be solved in a week. San Francisco will win, but the Lions, who are 7-2 ATS on the road this year, will cover an almost disrespectful +7.0 point spread.

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Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.