NFL Divisional Round Weekend Best Player Props NFL Betting Odds

Alex Murray
By:
Alex Murray
20 Jan 24
Betting Magazine
News - NFL
NFL Divisional Round Weekend Best Player Props NFL Betting Odds

After a 34-26 record during the regular season, we split our picks on Wild Card weekend, going 2-2 thanks to a C.J. Stroud performance with a surprising amount of poise and a postponement changing the weather conditions for Steelers-Bills. But the Divisional round is right around the corner, so once again, we won’t be looking at moneyline or spread odds, but we’ll be weighing all the best player props from the top NFL betting sites and betting apps.

Highlights

  • Isaiah Likely will continue to take advantage of Mark Andrews’ absence
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown and CMC are two of the most reliable player prop bets in the NFL
  • Josh Allen will employ his legs to control the game against the Chiefs

NFL Divisional Round Weekend Player Props Betting Odds - January 20 - January 21

All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Isaiah Likely (BAL) - Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. Houston Texans (Saturday)

Ravens former All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews made a run at returning from his ankle injury this week, but after logging a full practice on Thursday, he’s been ruled out for Saturday’s Divisional round matchup with the Texans, opening the door for another big game for backup TE Isaiah Likely.

Since Andrews went down against the Bengals in Week 11, Likely has been on a tear. He’s been able to hit the over on his receiving yards prop in all five games Lamar has played since Andrews went down, and Saturday’s prop has the lowest number since Week 15.

Moreover, he has been one of the most prolific tight ends in the NFL since he took on Andrews’ role in the offense, sitting fifth in receiving yards, tied for 14th in receptions, and first in touchdowns among tight ends over the season’s final six weeks.

What’s even more encouraging here are Houston’s strengths and weaknesses on defense. They are a top six run-stopping unit, which means there should be a lot more opportunities in the short passing game, and the Texans also allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends on the season, at just over 60 per game. 

Considering that the only other tight end catching passes, Charlie Kolar, hasn’t had more than one reception in a meaningful game all year, we feel confident that Likely will have a big day, especially considering he’s gone over 35 yards in all five games without Andrews and with Lamar.

Christian McCaffrey (SF) - Over 91.5 Rushing Yards (-110) vs. Green Bay Packers (Saturday)

There has arguably been no player more reliable this season than Christian McCaffrey when it comes to betting player props. He has hit the over on this prop in the last seven straight games in which he didn’t leave early due to injury, averaging 17.3 carries for 106.1 yards over that span.

The guy’s a stud, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll slow down in the playoffs, as he averaged 84.7 yards during San Francisco’s playoff run last year. He’s also gone over 92 yards in five straight games (not including Week 17 when he left the game early with injury), going for 100+ in four of those contests.

On Saturday night he’ll take on the Packers, who have generally been tough against the pass and soft against the run this year, finishing with the fifth-worst rush defense in the NFL. They allowed 140+ rushing yards to eight of their first 13 opponents before holding their final four regular season foes below 100.

However, despite having an enormous lead for most of their Wild Card win over Dallas, they still gave up over 120 yards rushing to the Cowboys, who had a middling rushing offense. CMC, who’s by far the best back in the league, is at the head of a top three rushing attack that’s also fourth in yards per carry, at 4.8. CMC should keep on rolling at home on Saturday night.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) - Over 91.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday)

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Last week, we bet on Detroit Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown to hit the over on a similar number against the Los Angeles Rams, and he had no trouble with that, going for 110 on the night. It’s not just the Rams, however, who St. Brown has dominated in recent weeks: the wideout has gone for 90+ his last five outings, including four 100+ yard games.

He led the league with nine 100+ yard games in 2023, which is also good for 13th all-time. He beat up on some poor secondaries like the L.A. Chargers, but he also went for 90 against Dallas’ fifth-ranked pass defense, 102 against the sixth-ranked Ravens defense, and 102 against the ninth-ranked Falcons secondary.

He also had himself a day against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers earlier this year, putting up 124 in the Week 6 win over his Divisional round opponent. And he’s not the only WR1 to carve up Tampa Bay’s 29th-ranked pass defense.

Just last week, DeVonta Smith put up 148, a few weeks before that Calvin Ridley went for 90, and a couple weeks before that Drake London had the game of his life against this secondary, going for 172 yards. When it comes to the saturated WR prop market these days, you won’t find a more consistent guy than St. Brown.

Josh Allen (BUF) - Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday)

In the marquee matchup of the weekend, Josh Allen will be crucial if the Buffalo Bills finally want to get the Kansas City Chiefs monkey off their back. It will be important to mix in James Cook as well, but we saw how big a difference Allen’s legs can make in that Wild Card round win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.

He ran for 74 on that day, and we’d expect him to hit at least 50 again against the Chiefs. He has played in nine playoff games in his illustrious career, and he’s topped the 50-yard mark in six of those. That includes 88 against the Chiefs in 2020 and another 68 on a playoff-high 11 carries in that epic 2021 clash.

While Allen reduced his rushing responsibilities during the start of Buffalo’s current six-game winning streak, his importance in the ground game has crept back up in recent weeks, with Allen hitting the over in his last two games of the regular season, going for 44 against the New England Patriots and 67 against the Miami Dolphins in the finale.

Not to mention one of the only weak spots in Kansas City’s stingy defense is its ability to stop QBs from racking up rushing yards, as they gave up the 10th-most ground yards to quarterbacks this season.

Last week, Tua Tagovailoa went for 25 yards on the ground against K.C. despite failing to top 15 all season. Easton Stick also rumbled for 77 yards in the regular season finale and Jake Browning went for 32 the week before that. In frigid Buffalo, we’d expect Allen to be getting the ground game going early and often.

Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.