Last week we got four straight up picks right, but only the Bucs and Chiefs covered for us, so we’re going to be looking for a big bounce back. As usual, we won’t be looking at moneyline favorites, we’ll be making the best value point spread pick for each matchup thanks to all the best NFL betting odds from the top NFL betting sites and betting apps.
NFL Divisional Round Weekend Spread Picks NFL Betting Odds
- Ravens D and Baltimore weather will stop Stroud, Texans in their tracks
- Lions and 49ers should cover massive spreads with relative ease
- Josh Allen and the Bills are going to exorcize their Chiefs demons once and for all
NFL Divisional Round Weekend Betting Odds - January 20-21, 2024
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens - 4:30PM, Saturday, January 20
For the second straight week, the schedule makers have stuck the Houston Texans in the Saturday afternoon slot, generally reserved for the least appealing game of that weekend’s playoff slate. But how could presumptive rookie of the year C.J. Stroud going against presumptive NFL MVP Lamar Jackson be boring?
Both QBs have been electric this season, and Stroud has been especially surprising, taking a team that many sportsbooks had with the second-lowest preseason win total to the second round of the playoffs. He’ll be in tough here, however.
While it was impressive that he sliced up Cleveland’s top-ranked pass defense last weekend, a closer look shows that the Browns beat up on a lot of lesser teams. Not so with the Ravens. When they took on the second (Dolphins), third (49ers), and fifth-ranked (Lions) offenses in football, they allowed a combined average of just 14.6 points. That’s tough.
The Ravens also do two things that will make it very hard for Stroud and company to stay in the game: they have the second-highest sack rate in the league, and they’re tied for the most takeaways. Stroud has been excellent at taking care of the ball, but if Baltimore starts getting pressure on him, he’s going to start looking like a rookie for real.
With their improved passing attack, Baltimore doesn’t have to worry that the Texans have a top rushing defense, they can just pass it over the top to Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham, and possibly even Mark Andrews, who got a limited practice in on Wednesday.
Houston’s poor pass defense may be their undoing here, and it just seems logical that at some point, Stroud is going to have a rough game where it looks like the stage is too big for him.
This might be that time, as the frigid Baltimore weather is likely to do a number on Stroud and the Texans, who are used to playing in a dome and have gone 4-4 on the road this year. We’re taking Baltimore to cover this -9.5 spread.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers - 8:15PM, Saturday, January 20
|Green Bay Packers
|San Francisco 49ers
Believe it or not, this represents the 10th time the Packers and 49ers have locked horns in the postseason, which will set a new NFL record. However, it hasn’t exactly been a competitive rivalry, as the 49ers have won the last four straight going back to 2012. That trend is unlikely to be bothered on Saturday night.
Jordan Love looks like Aaron Rodgers and they have the youngest playoff roster since the 1970s and blah blah blah, but like most games, this one is going to come down to the trenches, and that’s where the 49ers arguably have their biggest advantage.
The Packers have a bottom five rush defense, which is a shame, because they’re going against the best back in football (Christian McCaffrey) and the third-ranked rushing offense. If CMC gets going early, you can pretty much kiss this game goodbye.
On the other side, Love is actually one of the better QBs in the league when he’s under pressure, but he’s not under pressure very often, as he sits in the top 10 for fewest sacks taken and lowest pressure rate for QBs that started at least 16 games. He’s also top 10 in average pocket time, with 2.5 seconds.
However, the 49ers are tied for seventh in sacks while blitzing at the third-lowest rate. That means that they regularly apply pocket pressure while dropping back a full complement of LBs and DBs, which will make it a lot tougher for Love to dissect the secondary and make a smart read before Nick Bosa and the cavalry get there.
To put it in perspective, Dallas had fewer sacks while blitzing 10 percent more often than the 49ers. The Love story is heart-warming, and it looks like Green Bay may have found themselves an elite QB, but this team’s not ready for what’s about to hit them in Santa Clara. Roll with the healthy 49ers to cover this -9.5 spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions - 3PM, Sunday, January 21
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The battle of second-chance No. 1 pick QBs. Baker Mayfield has been lights out for the Bucs since November and Jared Goff has been a more-than-capable shepherd for this Lions team, which will host its second game of a single playoff season for the first time in over 50 years. Safe to say, Detroit is jacked up for this one.
And they should be, because Detroit has the much better team here, they just have to play like it. The Bucs have some talented playmakers, but they don’t have a lineup like the Lions that features an All-Pro wideout, an All-Pro tight end, an All-Pro tackle, and a pair of running backs that ran for just under 2,000 combined yards on 4.9 yards a carry this year.
Considering both of these teams have potent passing offenses and dreadful passing defenses, the efficiency of the running game could be the deciding factor here, and the Lions are winning that battle 10 times out of 10.
The Lions have the feel-good story, they’ve ended catastrophic droughts, and, most importantly, they are by far the more talented team of the two. They beat Tampa Bay by a couple of touchdowns earlier this year despite rushing for just 40 yards, so if they can flip that script this time around, the Lions will be headed to the NFC Championship. We’re taking the Lions to cover -6.5 in this one.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills - 6PM, Sunday, January 21
|Kansas City Chiefs
This is the game of the weekend, and it’s not even close, as the other three games all have spreads of about a touchdown or more. This one promises to be another epic chapter in the budding Bills-Chiefs rivalry, and it feels like it’s now or never for the Bills to put their stamp on it and get a playoff win over Patrick Mahomes and company.
For one, the Bills are finally hosting the Chiefs rather than the other way around. This will be Mahomes’ first road playoff game, while Allen has already proven he can carry his team away from home (see 13 seconds). Buffalo is also 8-2 at home this year, including last week’s playoff win over the Steelers.
The other issue for the Chiefs is that they’re not great at stopping the run, allowing all but three teams to gash them for 100+ this season, losing both games where they allowed 150+. While the Bills have been historically poor running the ball in the playoffs, they are the fifth-ranked rushing offense since Week 14, and they’re coming off another solid ground outing against Pittsburgh where they racked up 179 on the ground.
If Allen can avoid turnovers (the Chiefs forced the fifth-fewest this season) and the Bills can control the clock with their running game, they will finally be able to get the Andy Reid-sized monkey off their back. We’re taking the Bills to cover a -3.0 spread against the worst Chiefs offense they’re likely to see during the Mahomes era.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.