New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 7

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ · CBS

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

New York is 2-4 and Miami arrives at MetLife Stadium 0-5 and is tied for second to last in the league only averaging 14 ppg. The Jets have forced eight takeaways against only four giveaways this season and have a defence that has kept them close in five of six games.

New York Jets -4.5: -116

I'm backing New York to cover here. New York's defence ranks tied for fifth in the league at 20.3 ppg allowed, while Miami's offence sits tied for 31st at 14.0 ppg. Also, the Miami offensive line has given up 14 sacks and New York has 17 sacks on the season. The main gap between the Jets' defence and the Dolphins' offence is why I like New York to cover a 4.5-point spread at home.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Jets side

New York has lost four of its last five, but all four defeats came against teams currently .500 or better,  with the only win a 17-12 decision over an over .500 Cleveland team in Week 5 before a 26-19 loss to New England last week. Breece Hall missed last week but should be in the backfield for this game. A full complement up front gives Geno Smith's offence, which has converted 37.5% of its red-zone trips, a real advantage against a Dolphins defence that's conceded a touchdown on 63.6% of its red-zone chances this season. While the New York offence only ranks 27th in scoring they will get their chances facing the porous Miami defence. 

The Dolphins side

Miami has been held under 25 points in every game and most recently a 31-24 loss to Cincinnati heading into the bye. Malik Willis has started every game at quarterback with little success and the ground game has struggled to find room behind a line that keeps its quarterback under siege. The Dolphins' defence has been just as bad, allowing a 51.7% third-down conversion rate and giving up 26.4 ppg, 24th in the league. Facing a Jets team built to control the clock on the ground, that third-down leak is the single biggest reason I expect this one to get away from Miami. 

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Jets Moneyline	Jets Spread -5
-244	-108
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Jets moneyline odds of -244 on Bet365 imply a de-vigged win probability of 68% for New York against 32% for Miami. My own number sits a few points higher, around 72%, because I think the market is still underpricing how one-sided this specific matchup is on both lines of the ball. Miami did win both meetings between these two last season, including a 34-10 result at this same MetLife Stadium, but that Dolphins team had a functioning offensive line and a top-10 scoring attack, neither of which is true of this season’s group, and that's the gap this week's NFL prediction odds still underprice.

I'm calling this one 24-13 for New York. The Jets are better on both sides of the ball and their defence will get it done.An overmatched Miami offensive line is the reason I expect the Jets to pull away in the second half rather than let this stay a one-score game. Combined, 37 points sits a shade under the 39.5 total, a lower-scoring game, which is not surprising since both teams have struggled to score.