Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 7

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN · CBS

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Minnesota is 5-0 and has held four of its five opponents to 16 points or fewer. Indianapolis arrives having dropped two straight, including a 34-22 loss at Pittsburgh and a 26-20 home loss to Tennessee in their last game. The gap between these two defences is one of the widest on this week's NFL picks board, and it is the main reason Minnesota opened as nearly a touchdown favourite.

Minnesota Vikings -6.5: -109

I'm backing Minnesota -6.5 here. The Vikings defence has allowed just 12.8 ppg, the best mark in the league, and Indianapolis is coming off back-to-back losses in which its offence was held under its season average both times. Minnesota's own offence is nothing flashy at 21.8 ppg, but Indianapolis ranks 27th in points allowed at 27.3 ppg, which should open things up more than usual at U.S. Bank Stadium for a Vikings’ team that is rolling. 

Justin Jefferson Over 70 Receiving Yards: -141

Jefferson has cleared 70 receiving yards in two of his four games back from an ankle issue, going for 92 against Green Bay and 79 in his last outing before the bye. Indianapolis ranks 21st in pass defence, and with Minnesota's run game still finding its footing between Aaron Jones and a returning Jordan Mason, I expect a healthy dose of Jefferson targets here. That matchup is why I like the Over for Minnesota’ top WR.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Minnesota side

Kyler Murray leads an offence that leans on its defence more than its scoring. Jordan Mason is back this week from a broken thumb, giving Minnesota a two-back rotation with Aaron Jones after Jones shouldered the load in his absence, including a 23-13 win at New Orleans in their last game before the bye. The killer defense has been lights out and has only allowed an average of 10.5 ppg over the last four games. 

The Indianapolis side

Daniel Jones remains the starter over Anthony Richardson, but his offence has stalled at 24 ppg against a tougher October slate. Jonathan Taylor is averaging 82 rushing yards across six games, including 94 on 21 carries last time out against Tennessee, but he now faces the stiffest test facing a Minnesota run defence that ranks fifth in the NFL. That defense and the lack of a legit Indy offense, is why the Vikings are the pick.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Vikings Spread -6.5	Vikings Moneyline
109	-295
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
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Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Minnesota's -295 moneyline on Sports Interaction implies a de-vigged win probability of 72% against 28% for Indianapolis. I land a few points higher on the Vikings, around 75%, because the market hasn't fully priced in a Colts team on a two-game skid facing the league's best defence. This is a lean more than a mismatch, but a specific one: Indianapolis has given up points all season, and Minnesota's offence only needs to be decent to win comfortably at home.

I'm calling Minnesota 23, Indianapolis 13, a lower-scoring afternoon that still clears the spread with room to spare. Minnesota's defence has done this all season, and I don't expect a struggling Colts’ team to be the exception on the road. The Colts' D gives up too much for Jones and Taylor to keep pace, and 36 combined points lands comfortably under the 41.5 total.