UFC 299 Main Card UFC Betting Preview & Odds

09 Mar 24
UFC
News - UFC
UFC 299 Main Card UFC Betting Preview & Odds

The UFC was not going to rest on its laurels just because they’ve got UFC 300 coming up: they’re ready to put on a show at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida on Saturday night. There will be a whopping 16 ranked fighters going to war on March 9, nine of which will fight on the main card. We’ve already covered the main and co-main events, so here, we’ll focus on the other three scraps on the main card. In the third-to-last fight of the evening, No. 13 Kevin Holland comes in as a very slim moneyline favorite according to the top UFC betting sites and betting apps.

Highlights

  • Kevin Holland will give Bellator legend Michael Page a rude UFC awakening
  • Jack Della Maddalena will stay on his feet and outbox Gilbert Burns
  • Song Yadong will continue his strong recent form against a faltering Petr Yan

UFC 299 Main Card Betting Odds - March 9

In that fight, No. 13 welterweight Kevin Holland will be fighting Michael Page, who will be making his long-awaited debut with the promotion following a loss in the Bellator welterweight title fight back in 2022. Also on the card will be a second welterweight battle, this one between two established UFC names in No. 4 Gilbert Burns and No. 11 Jack Della Maddalena. An intriguing bantamweight matchup between No. 4 Petr Yan and No. 7 Song Yadong will get the main card started on Saturday evening. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

No. 13 Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page Welterweight Bout Odds

FighterMoneylineWin by KO/TKO/DQWin by SubmissionWin by DecisionTotal Rounds
Kevin Holland-125+450+550+200O2.5 (-179)
Michael Page+105+450+2,500+225U2.5 (+135)

In the third fight of the main card we get arguably the most intriguing matchup of the entire event. No. 13 welterweight Kevin Holland (25-10, 1 NC) will look to give Bellator standout Michael Page (21-2) a rude welcome to the UFC in the latter’s debut with the promotion.

Page dominated in Bellator, taking 16 of his 21 wins by way of finish. However, in his penultimate fight in that promotion, he suffered a split decision loss in the welterweight championship bout. His last fight was also nearly exactly a year ago. Meanwhile, Holland has lost three of his last five outings, though his most recent loss, to another guy on this card, Jack Della Maddalena, came by way of a very tight split decision.

This should be one of the most fun fights of the night, because both guys are elite strikers with varied striking skill sets. Page is known for his wild striking technique, and while that may have worked at Bellator, a level up in the UFC, he is likely to find it tougher to land those strikes while protecting himself.

Holland has more in his knapsack than Page, as evidenced by a couple of brabo choke wins in recent years. He had success bringing Stephen Thompson to the mat as well, so we’d expect him to set up some takedown attempts early to gauge Page’s takedown defense.

Holland’s the much younger fighter here, he’s a more disciplined striker, and he’s much better in the wrestling and grappling exchanges. At 36, Page may have come over to the UFC a little too late, and Holland’s combination of length, speed, and power is something he hasn’t had to contend with before.

We like Holland to win, and at -125, his moneyline odds are not bad at all. However, to get a little more juice out of the squeeze, our best bet would be that he wins via decision at +200 odds, as both of these guys have only been knocked out once in their careers. Holland to win via submission at +550 could be interesting too if he can get Page to the mat.

No. 4 Gilbert Burns vs. No. 11 Jack Della Maddalena Welterweight Bout Odds

FighterMoneylineWin by KO/TKO/DQWin by SubmissionWin by DecisionTotal Rounds
Gilbert Burns+145+900+350+450O1.5 (-192)
Jack Della Maddalena-179+150+2,000+300U1.5 (+145)

This will be a classic grappler vs. striker affair. Gilbert Burns (22-6) is still tough, but at 37, he’s 10 years older than Jack Della Maddalena (16-2), and when a fighter is five or more years younger than their opponent, they win nearly 65 percent of the time.

And that’s before going into the style mismatch here. Burns is an elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner, but Maddalena is no slouch in that respect either. The Aussie can really do it all, finding success in striking exchanges, grappling, and on the mat. He brings elite cardio and his energy could overwhelm the aging Durinho here.

Maddalena hasn’t been as dominant in recent fights, coming off of back-to-back split decision wins, but his 82 percent takedown defense gives us a lot of confidence that he can stay on his feet in this one, where he’ll have his biggest advantage. The moneyline odds are a bit out of whack—this should be closer to a pick ‘em—but even so, with Burns’ concrete chin, Maddalena to win via decision at +300 odds is offering solid value.

No. 4 Petr Yan vs. No. 7 Song Yadong Bantamweight Bout Odds

FighterMoneylineWin by KO/TKO/DQWin by SubmissionWin by DecisionTotal Rounds
Petr Yan-125+500+2,000+125O2.5 (-275)
Song Yadong+105+450+1,800+175U2.5 (+200)

Another pick ‘em on the main card, former champ and No. 4 bantamweight contender Petr Yan (16-5) will look to rediscover the form that brought him the belt against No. 7 Song Yadong (21-7-1, 1 NC). Yan is on a pretty rough streak right now, having lost three straight, two of which came by split decision.

He has also not been busy of late, as Song Yadong has fought twice since Yan last fought on March 11, 2023. The South Korean has also won five of his last six fights against solid competition. Yadong may not be as good a technical striker as Yan, but he’s got the advantage in age, strength, and energy.

The Russian has also been known to start slowly, which is not conducive to success in three round fights. If this were five, Yan might have more time to get in rhythm, but as it stands as a three-round fight, Yadong is primed to continue his ascension up the bantamweight rankings.

The way Yan was dominated by Merab Dvalishvili in his last fight is likely still fresh in his mind, and if you don’t come in with confidence about your abilities against a guy like Yadong, you’re going to struggle. Yadong’s varied striking technique will help him touch Yan up and outpoint him, as this one is likely to go to the bell. With that in mind, Yadong’s +105 odds are good enough, but his +175 odds to win via decision might be the better bet.

Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.