UFC 299 Preliminary Card UFC Betting Preview & Odds

The UFC was really in its bag when it put together the preliminary and main cards for UFC 299. There will be 16 ranked fighters in Miami on Saturday night, seven of which will be battling on the four-fight preliminary card. I mean, this preliminary card is so stacked it could have easily been its own Fight Night main card. If this is what we’re getting for UFC 299, can you imagine what’s going to happen at UFC 300? In the featured preliminary bout, Jailton Almeida comes in as the slightest moneyline favorite you’ll ever see, according to the top UFC betting sites and betting apps.

UFC 299 Preliminary Card Betting Odds - March 9

In that featured bout, No. 5 heavyweight contender Curtis Blaydes will try to stop the momentum of up-and-comer and No. 7 Jailton Almeida. Prior to that, we’ll also see No. 4 women’s flyweight contender Katlyn Cerminara battle No. 6 Maycee Barber. We’ll also get a matchup pitting No. 6 lightweight Mateusz Gamrot against No. 11 Rafael dos Anjos and a bout featuring No. 13 bantamweight Pedro Munhoz against unranked Kyler Phillips. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

No. 5 Curtis Blaydes vs. No. 7 Jailton Almeida Heavyweight Bout Odds

If you’re looking for fireworks, do not miss the featured preliminary bout here. Curtis Blaydes (17-4, 1 NC) will look to hold off the charge of up-and-comer Jailton Almeida (20-2), who has won 15 straight fights dating back to 2018.

Almeida has been dominant in the octagon, but not against anyone with Blaydes’ wrestling skills. Malhadinho has also shown no ability to put together coherent combinations in the stand up, and his set ups for his takedowns are usually sloppy, as his immense strength usually makes up for his lack of technique. That won’t work against Blaydes, who is likely to come into the octagon 20-30 pounds heavier than the ripped Almeida.

Blaydes can still bang despite an ugly loss to Sergei Pavlovich, and his advantage on the feet is far larger than Almeida’s on the mat. The nuclear weapons in the fists of these two guys will make them think twice about rushing in, so expect a more methodical fight than most fans might be hoping for. With that in mind, we’re rolling with the veteran, Blaydes, at -105 odds, but our best bet here would be the fight to go the distance at +165 odds.

No. 4 Katlyn Cerminara vs. No. 6 Maycee Barber Women’s Flyweight Bout Odds

Maycee Barber (13-2) comes into this one in a better spot than her opponent, Katlyn Cerminara (18-5). Barber has won five straight, while Cerminara is coming off of a loss after four straight wins of her own. Barber has more finishing power and can sometimes overwhelm opponents with her Tasmanian Devil-like aggression and volume.

However, Barber has a three-inch reach and four-inch height disadvantage here. Barber really does most of her damage on the inside, and Cerminara’s massive length will not allow her to do that. Cerminara—who was impressive on the feet against Manon Fiorot, a much better striker than Barber—is also likely to take advantage of Barber’s brutal takedown defense, as her wrestling is one of her greatest weaknesses.

If you like Cerminara like we do, you might as well get the extra value of her win via decision prop at +200: she has not won by finish since 2016.

No. 6 Mateusz Gamrot vs. No. 11 Rafael dos Anjos Lightweight Bout Odds

Rafael dos Anjos (32-15) is knocking on the door of 40 years old, but he’s still one of the best lightweights in the world, if not something of a gatekeeper at this point in his career. And the guy who he’ll look to shut the gate on in Miami is Mateusz Gamrot (23-2, 1 NC), an exciting Swiss fighter who has gone 6-2 in the UFC with four finishes.

The oddsmakers are not giving the Brazilian much of a chance, as Gamrot is the second-biggest favorite on the entire card. It’s a bit disrespectful, but it does make sense. Dos Anjos is a real fighter that doesn’t shy away from even the worst stylistic matchups—and that’s the case here.

Long has takedown defense been one of dos Anjos’ main blind spots, and Gamrot is an excellent wrestler with finishing ability on the mat. He has beaten some impressive opponents including Arman Tsarukyan and Rafael Fiziev, so he’s fought top quality competition before as well.

Gamrot also has a very tough chin and a motor that can match even dos Anjos’ legendary gas tank. He can hold his own on the feet, but we expect Gamrot to win this one on the mat with takedown after takedown. It’s also worth mentioning that Gamrot is six years younger than dos Anjos, and when a fighter is 5+ years younger than an opponent, they win over 63 percent of the time.

Dos Anjos has only been knocked out once since 2016 and he’s never been submitted, so while we expect Gamrot to win, he will do so through the judge’s scorecards, so take his -175 win by decision odds here.

No. 13 Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips Bantamweight Bout Odds

The first fight of the preliminary card sees a grizzled vet in Pedro Munhoz (20-8, 2 NC) going up against a young pup in Kyler Phillips (11-2). Munhoz is in tough here, as he’s certainly way down the back nine of his career, having won just two of his last eight fights dating back to 2019.

Phillips, meanwhile, has been a menace since joining the UFC in 2020, going 5-1 with two finishes, including an impressive decision win over Song Yadong, who will be fighting on the main card of this event.

Phillips also enters with a nine-year age advantage and two and seven-inch advantages in height and reach, respectively.  That kind of reach advantage is no small thing, and it will keep Phillips safe from the wild inside exchanges that are Munhoz’ bread and butter. 

Munhoz’ striking defense isn’t great—though he’s also shatterproof—which should allow the bigger Phillips to pop in and out and touch Munhoz up to get the win on the cards. Phillips’ combination of speed and patience will be a major problem for Munhoz, as the youngster takes this one via decision at -119 odds.