2025 NFL Most Regular Season Passing TDs Futures Market: Breakdown & Value Picks - August 1
All odds provided by Betway.
2025 NFL Most Regular Season Passing TDs Betting Odds
| Player | July 27 Odds |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | +500 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | +900 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | +1,000 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | +1,000 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | +1,200 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +1,400 |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | +1,600 |
| J.J. McCarthy (MIN) | +2,000 |
| Jordan Love (GB) | +2,000 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | +2,200 |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | +2,200 |
| Aaron Rodgers (PIT) | +2,500 |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | +2,500 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | +2,800 |
| Jayden Daniels (WAS) | +2,800 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | +2,800 |
| Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) | +2,800 |
The Favorites
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (+500): It’s pretty rare for a QB to lead the league in passing TDs twice in a row these days. No one has done it since 2011-2012, when Drew Brees did it. The others to have done it since the merger were Brett Favre, Steve Young, Jim Everett, and Dan Marino. Pretty good list.
But nowadays, there are simply too many productive quarterbacks out there, and considering all the trends going against Joe Burrow to repeat his feat from 2024, we’re surprised he’s listed as a favorite and with odds this short. We’ll look elsewhere for value.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+900): This one’s another surprise, because we didn’t expect Baker Mayfield to be getting so much respect from Vegas. It’s unfortunate for us, as we expected to get him at a better number, but +900 odds from most Ontario sportsbooks is not too shabby. Mayfield was second in the NFL with 41 last year, and the Bucs added another elite receiver to the fold with first-rounder Emeka Egbuka. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will both also be healthy. We’re not sure about Tampa Bay as a whole, but that passing offense is going to be potent, to say the least. We’d take a shot on Mayfield here.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (+1,000): This is another one we like. He will once again have no shortage of weapons and an elite offensive line. He won’t have Ben Johnson there to cradle him, so there might be more interceptions, but we think more touchdowns as well with Jameson Williams coming into his own next to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (+1,000): Despite having arguably the best rushing attack in the game last year, Lamar Jackson threw 41 TDs, second most in the NFL. We’re not sure they’ll be able to recreate that balance again in 2025, however.
Long Shot Value Bet
- Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (+1,200): Prior to his second Super Bowl win following the 2022 season, Mahomes was always near the top of all the QB stats. He led the league in passing TDs in 2018 and 2022 and also yards in 2022. But he’s taken it easy in the regular season the last few years, allowing the defense to carry him in 2023 and 2024. After that embarrassing Super Bowl loss, however, we’re expecting massive numbers from Mahomes during the 2025 regular season.
