NFL Week 16 Best Player Props Picks NFL Betting Odds

Alex Murray
By:
Alex Murray
24 Dec 23
Betting Magazine
News - NFL
NFL Week 16 Best Player Props Picks NFL Betting Odds

Last week we came so close to another clean, five-pick sweep, but unfortunately Puka Nacua was waiting until TNF to put in the big performance we were expecting on Sunday. Oh well, four for five is still none too shabby. Today, we won’t be looking at moneyline or spread odds, but we’ll be weighing all the best player props from the top NFL betting sites and betting apps.

Highlights

  • James Conner and Rachaad White will do damage through the air
  • David Njoku will continue his hot streak
  • Tennessee’s inability to stop opposing WRs will continue against D.K. Metcalf

NFL Week 16 Sunday Slate Player Props Betting Odds - Sunday, December 24th

All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

James Conner (ARI) - Over 1.5 Receptions (-110) vs. Chicago Bears

These days you’d be hard-pressed to find many running backs that aren’t also solid pass-catchers, but James Conner is one of those few. He has only snagged 17 balls for 39 yards through the air this season, so why would we want to back him in that arena now?

Well, as you know, player prop picks are as much about the player you’re betting on and their current form as it is about the opponent in front of them. Conner will be taking on the Bears, who are by far the worst when it comes to defending running backs in the passing game. They have allowed 780 receiving yards to RBs this year, over 100 more than the next closest team.

The 86 receptions they’ve given up are also third-most, and considering that James Conner usually plays around 70 percent of the snaps, we reckon he’ll get enough chances in the passing game, especially since we expect this one to be a bit of a shootout.

He’s had 2+ receptions in three of his last four games, and he’s had 13 targets over that span, so we feel good that he’ll get at least a couple of looks on Sunday.

Rachaad White (TB) - Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

In that same vein, we have another running back receiving prop, but this time we’re rolling with a proven dual-threat guy in Rachaad White. He’s top five in both receiving yards and receptions for running backs this year, and while he has continued to put up solid numbers in the passing game, he’s been doing it on far fewer opportunities of late.

From Week 2 to 10 he was averaging 4.3 receptions per game, but over his last four, he’s averaged just 2.8 grabs. However, his yardage totals have never waned, as he has gone over 27 yards through the air in seven of his last nine games.

That’s a delectable trend, and the fact that he’s going against Jacksonville’s porous pass defense is the cherry on top. Like the Bears, the Jags are especially terrible when it comes to stopping backs running routes out of the backfield, having allowed the third most receiving yards and most receptions to the running back position this year. 

Jerome Ford had 31 a couple of weeks ago, Joe Mixon had 49 the week before, and Devin Singletary had 54 the week before that. We could go on.

David Njoku (CLE) - Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. Houston Texans

Joe Flacco has given the entire Browns organization new life, but no one looks more rejuvenated of late than tight end David Njoku. He had a career day last week, snagging 10 balls for 104 yards and a touchdown. It’s not just last week, though, Njoku has been on fire nearly all season.

Njoku has covered the over on his receptions prop in 12 of his last 13 games, but five catches felt a little high for us, as he has only had 5+ catches six times this season. He’s been recording more chunk plays of late, topping 50 yards receiving in five of his last six games and seven of his last nine. He has been especially busy since Flacco went under center, averaging 9.3 targets in Flacco’s three starts.

They’ll be going up against the Texans on Sunday, which is good news for Njoku in particular: the 875 yards they’ve given up to tight ends this year is fourth-most in the NFL and the 91 receptions they’ve allowed are second-most.

We bet on Tennessee’s tight end, Chig Okonkwo, against the Texans last week, and he covered for us. In the weeks prior, Tyler Conklin went for 57, Evan Engram went for 49, and Tanner Hudson put up 43, all of which hit overs. We expect Njoku to do the same.

D.K. Metcalf (SEA) - Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. Tennessee Titans

We took Metcalf’s over last week, and he came clutch with three massive grabs to hit it on Seattle’s final drive. And that was with Drew Lock at the controls. Geno Smith will return this week, and he has a much better and more consistent connection with Metcalf.

D.K. has also been pretty reliable this year when he’s not going against the 49ers. Since Week 2, he has hit the over on his receiving yards prop in eight of his 10 games against everyone but San Francisco. He has had 75+ receiving yards in his last four games against non-49ers opponents as well.

He’ll also be coming up against the Tennessee Titans’ subpar pass defense. While they’re actually more middle of the pack overall, the Titans have been very susceptible to opposing receivers on the outside, which is where Metcalf generally lines up.

They only allow 226 pass yards per game, but over 175 of those are going to receivers like Metcalf. Over the last three weeks, Noah Brown went for 82, Jaylen Waddle went for 79, and Michael Pittman went for 105. Metcalf is a bigger threat than that trio, so he should hit the over on this prop relatively comfortably.

Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.