Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots NFL TNF Betting Odds

The NFL’s Thursday Night Football showcase hits a new low this week, with two of the worst offenses in the league doing battle. The 7-5 Pittsburgh Steelers will host the 2-10 New England Patriots in a game that lacks so much appeal that the two people used in the promos were coach Bill Belichick for the Pats and defender T.J. Watt for the Steelers. Unsurprisingly, the Steelers are pretty large moneyline favorites on all NFL betting sites and betting apps.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots NFL Betting Odds - Thursday, December 7th

The Pittsburgh Steelers were looking good heading into Week 13 with a new-look offense against a two-win team, but they got killed 24-10 by the Arizona Cardinals and lost their starting QB, raising a lot of new questions about their playoff chances. The Patriots, meanwhile, lost their fifth straight despite holding the Los Angeles Chargers to just two field goals. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

This has got to be the ugliest primetime matchup in NFL history. If it’s not, it’s got to be at least top 10. The total is the lowest the NFL has seen in several decades, and we’re likely to get two QBs start this game that were not in that role at the start of last week’s games. 

The Steelers are coming off of their worst loss in recent memory. They had two good drives to start the game, and after that, nothing. Not to mention, their defense allowed Kyler Murray and the rest of his two-win offense to drive 99 yards for a touchdown. That’s got to hurt.

What hurt even more was that they lost Kenny Pickett right before the half. While Mitchell Trubisky is not much worse than Pickett—in fact, overall he might be better—the jarring nature of an in-game QB change does not often work out very well for that team.

This week, Trubisky will have taken all of the first-team reps, so he should be a lot more comfortable back there. The former No. 2 overall pick also mentioned that he’ll be looking to be aggressive, and Mike Tomlin said that “nothing changes” with Trubisky under center.

They’ll need Trubisky to have a solid game, because this New England Patriots defense is playing out of this world right now. They have allowed a total of 26 points over the last three games, and somehow they still went 0-3 during that stretch. They’re the first team to allow 10 or fewer points in three straight games without winning any since 1938. Yikes.

What they do especially well is stop the run. They’ve given up the third-fewest yards this season, and the 3.2 yards per carry they’re allowing is the lowest in the entire league. Yeah, it’s true. The 2-10 Patriots have arguably the best run defense in football. Weird, right?

The Steelers will obviously try slamming their heads against that wall in the ground game, but don’t expect another big day for Pittsburgh’s dual-threat backfield. It will have to be Trubisky moving the ball methodically through the air if the Steelers want some points.

Honestly, looking at these two offenses, this could genuinely end 3-0 or 6-3. That’s how anemic they are. So what will be the difference? Turnovers. Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. The Steelers get a ton of them (t-fifth) and the Patriots do not (29th). Without a turnover, it’s hard to see Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe leading this offense into scoring range.

The Steelers will win this game at home. This is a real “get right” game for them and a must-win if they expect to advance to the postseason. While we hate the spread because of how few points are likely to be scored, we simply can’t wrap our heads around a bet on the Patriots at this point, so we’ll take Pittsburgh -6.0 at -110 odds.

In terms of the over/under—just don’t overthink it. Unless there are three defensive touchdowns scored (which, admittedly, is entirely possible), there’s no way this game gets anywhere near the 30-point total. Pittsburgh has hit the under in 10 of 12 games, ditto for New England in nine of 12. Go for the under on this one’s 30.0 point total at -110 odds.

Player Props To Consider

The one good thing about how ugly this matchup is is that all of the player props are massively reduced. The prop we like best is the over on Pittsburgh tight end Pat Freiermuth’s 26.5 receiving yards prop. Trubisky will be finding his footing, and the tight end is always a simple and easy option over the middle. We expect Freiermuth to hit this one early.

Another one we like is T.J. Watt to record a sack, which has hit in all but two games this season. Watt rarely speaks in the media, but he sounded off this week about what he perceives as a lack of holding calls on him, so best believe he’s going to be rushing the passer like he’s got a bee in his bonnet. It’s sitting at -210 so it’s not a great single bet, but it’s an excellent addition to any parlay you might be cooking up.