World Cup Odds 2026: Outright Markets & Predictions

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the first tri‑hosted tournament and the largest to date, expanding from 32 to 48 teams. Canada, the United States, and Mexico will host 104 matches (64 previous) in 16 different cities across North America. The tournament will increase from eight groups of four to 12, with the top two teams from each group and the best eight third place teams advancing to a 32 team knockout stage.

On this page we cover key outright betting markets for the tournament including outright winners, top goalscorer (Golden Boot), regional winners, group winners, and stages of elimination. We will be analysing each of these markets for you, not just making predictions, but taking a data-driven approach by looking at historical trends and odds values.

Here is a table displaying the top 21 most likely countries to win the 2026 World Cup, with outright winner odds provided from our top five rated sportsbooks.

Current Odds Table

Team	Betovo	Beonbet	TonyBet	LeoVegas	Betista
Spain	+450	+450	+455	+450	+450
England	+550	+600	+565	+550	+550
France	+800	+800	+798	+800	+800
Brazil	+800	+800	+811	+800	+800
Argentina	+800	+800	+815	+800	+800
Portugal	+1100	+1000	+1117	+1100	+1100
Germany	+1200	+1200	+1227	+1200	+1200
Netherlands	+2000	+1600	+2026	+2000	+2000
Norway	+2500	+2500	+2575	+2800	+2500
Italy	+3300	+3300	+3347	+4000	+3300
Belgium	+3400	+3300	+3402	+5000	+3400
Colombia	+4900	+4000	+4910	+4000	+4900
Uruguay	+6600	+4000	+6590	+5000	+6600
Morocco	+7900	+6600	+5490	+5000	+7900
Mexico	+6600	+5000	+6780	+8000	+6600
USA	+7900	+6000	+7890	+8000	+7900
Croatia	+8900	+6600	+8059	+10000	+8900
Ecuador	+7900	+8000	+8030	+10000	+7900
Switzerland	+7900	+8000	+9090	+10000	+7900
Japan	+9900	+8000	+9520	+10000	+9900
Canada	+23,000	+15,000	+20,000	+25,000	+18,000

Here we breakdown the top five 2026 World Cup Contenders, going over their current World Cup odds of winning, group placement, key players, strengths, and weaknesses.

The favourite on each of our top five sportsbooks, Spain has an implied probability of 20% to win the 2026 World Cup. The 2010 Champions were upset by Morocco at the 2022 World Cup in the round of 16, but they are the reigning Euro champions in 2024. Their possession based style of play should work to their advantage in a tournament of this size, wearing down their opponents with their blend of elite talent and young rising stars. Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal are their impact wingers that will attack teams on the flank, Rodri is an experienced midfield anchor who won the Ballon d’Or in 2024, and Pedri is a young and exciting central midfielder.

Spain’s Euro win proved their style of play isn’t just pointless possession, but the team can struggle if their style of play is disrupted. Defence is the team's key weakness, as they lack physicality, making them vulnerable against aggressive attacks. Spain has Uruguay in their division, who could contest them for the top spot and an easier path to the finals – but they should be able to finish top two over Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde. Their odds value is fair and they should be the number one ranked team, but anything can happen in the 32 team single knockout bracket.

The country that invented the sport hasn’t won the World Cup or even made the final since 1966, but they still rank second in odds on all five of our top sportsbooks. England has reached the last two Euro finals, proving they are deserving of being the tournament's second ranked team. The team has very few weaknesses with incredible depth, aggressive high intensity attacking talent, and a much improved defence since handing things over to manager Thomas Tuchel. Their biggest obstacles will be developing more creative consistency and overcoming the pressure to not crumble in the later stages of the tournament.

England will be looking to improve on their quarterfinal exit to France in 2022, led once again by Harry Kane, the teams all time leading scorer and still the biggest goal threat. Midfielder Jude Bellingham is the next biggest name to pay attention to as the second runner up for the Ballon d’Or in 2024. The talent here is undeniable, but it might be slightly inflating England’s odds as they have a difficult group, which could match them up against stronger opponents than they would like earlier in the tournament. Croatia can contest them for the top spot in Group L and Ghana will be able to put up a fight.

France, Brazil, and Argentina are all neck and neck in 2026 World Cup odds with identical prices on all but one of our top sportsbooks. France comes out slightly ahead as the reigning runner-up and 2018 Champion. They have a deep and well balanced offense, which allows them to adapt to their opponents rather than having a distinct playstyle. Not to mention they are led by Kylian Mbappe, one of the best players in the world who can take over any match, making France a team to avoid in the knockout stage.

Their defence can be exposed at times, and having both Norway and Senegal in their Group doesn’t guarantee them anything. They could easily end up facing a top team in the early knockout stage, but the team’s depth and recent success at the tournament make their odds fair and maybe even slightly generous.

Brazil ranks only slightly behind the top three European giants despite being the most successful team in World Cup history. The 2002 champions have won five times and are the only team to appear in each of the 22 tournaments. There are big questions behind this squad however, as all-time leading goalscorer Neymar is recovering from a major injury and may not be fit to endure a 48 team tournament at age 34. They still have plenty of depth and firepower with Vinicius Junior, Rodrygo, and Endrick, but their inconsistency in the qualifiers and their defence being exploited by European teams at times puts their odds in question.

Morocco is coming off a semifinals appearance in Qatar, making it further than Brazil who was eliminated in the quarterfinals, so Group C could be up for grabs. Both of these teams should be able to easily secure the top two spots however, as Scotland is a step behind both teams and Haiti poses little threat. The odds for Brazil to win are reasonable, but their lack of recent success in recent tournaments, potentially playing without superstar Neymar, and their inconsistent play leading up the tournament makes them slightly overvalued compared to other teams.

The reigning World Cup Champions come into the 2026 tournament ranking behind the European trio and almost evenly with Brazil. They have also won back-to-back Copa America titles, but two time Golden Ball winner Lionel Messi is coming off an injury at 39 years old and has yet to confirm his participation in the tournament. The team still has plenty of star power with Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez, but they often rely on individual brilliance and can struggle if their key players are neutralized.

Argentina did lose their opening match to Saudi Arabia at the last World Cup so anything can happen, but they have one of the easier draws with Algeria, Austria, and Jordan. Finishing first should set them up well for a deep run making their odds look favourable, but no team has won consecutive tournaments since Brazil in 1962, so the difficulty and unlikelihood of repeating is likely being factored into the odds. Having an elite defence and one of the best goaltenders in the world really goes a long way in a tournament like this, so expect a deep run from Argentina once again.

Here are three dark horses with an outside chance to win the 2026 World Cup. These teams still have a solid shot at winning, but you can get them at a much better price than the top contenders.

Portugal

Portugal is coming off their best finish at the World Cup since finishing third in 1966, making the quarterfinals for just the second time in team history. They will have Chistiano Ronaldo, one the sports best players of all time, returning for this sixth World Cup, but he is well past his prime at age 41. The team is now highlighted by Vitinha, who finished third in Ballon d’OR voting last season, and Bruno Fernandes who is one of the top midfielders in the Premier League.

The 2016 Euro Champions can struggle with elite defenses, and will have to fend off Colombia in the Group Stage to give themselves a chance to make it to the quarterfinals without playing Spain. They will rely on their attacking depth from a ridiculously talented group of forwards, but defensive questions will ultimately decide if they can make it past a likely matchup with Argentina in the quarterfinals.

Germany

The 2014 World Cup Champions rank just behind Portugal in 2026 World Cup odds. Failing to make it past the group stage in each of the past two World Cups makes Germany an unlikely winner, but if their young core plays up to their potential they are a true contender. They will be led by Bayern Munich teammates Joshua Kimmich and Jamal Musiala and coached by former Bayern Munich manager Julian Nagelsmann. Florian Wirtz is another name to pay attention to as one of Germany’s most productive young stars.

This team has great bounce back potential with history on their side. They have four titles to their name and a fairly easy group, though Ecuador could challenge them for the top spot. Germany has proven themselves in the knockout stage of this tournament, but we will have to find out if they have done enough rebuilding to make it there this time around.

Netherlands

The 2010 runner-up is still searching for their first FIFA World Cup title. They followed up their second place finish with a third in 2014, but failed to qualify in 2018. The Netherlands are coming off a fifth place finish, after taking tournament winner Argentina to penalties in the quarterfinals. They have made it past the group stage in every tournament they have qualified for, and they have one of the easier group draws this year with Japan as the biggest threat.

Defence will be the team’s identity with team captain Virgil van Dijk leading the back line. Memphis Depay will also be returning as the teams all time leader scorer and Frenkie de Jong will be essential to their midfield control, but the teams success will ultimately hinge on if they have enough attacking production to overcome elite competition.

Here are our three long shot picks to win the 2026 World Cup. These teams have longer odds but still a realistic shot at winning.

Norway

Norway may be more of a dark horse than a long shot, but the odds gap between them and both Portugal and Germany is significant. Having one of the worlds best strikers in Erling Haaland gives them a chance in any match. They dominated in qualifying, going 8-0 with 33 goals and just four against, but their lack of tournament experience and the numerous powerhouses ahead of them pushes them into the long shot category. This is the first time that the country has qualified since 1998, but the team is strong enough to potentially shock the world.

Italy

The 2020 Euro and 2006 FIFA World Cup champions are still yet to officially qualify for the tournament after missing out in back to back years for the first time in the counties history. Italy is a well proven soccer nation, qualifying every year from 1962 to 2014, but they have not made it out of the group stage since their win in 2006. If they are able to qualify as they are projected, then their odds to win will improve, so now could be a good time to take a long shot on an experienced team that could rise to the occasion.

Belgium

The 2018 third place finishers qualified for the tournament undefeated, and have one of the easiest group draws they could ask for with Egypt as their biggest threat. The team has plenty of talent, but an early exit in the 2024 Euros and failing to make it out of the group stage in 2022 has tanked their odds. Kevin De Bruyne finished top three in Ballon d’Or voting in 2023 and goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is a UEFA Champions league and Premier league winner, but all-time scoring leader Romelu Lukaku being passed his prime is something they will need to prove they can overcome

In order to identify value in the tournament winner market, you need to avoid looking for the most likely winner, and find odds that are higher than a team’s true probability of winning. We recommend finding an implied probability calculator online to convert odds into a percentage that a team will win. If you believe the team has a higher percentage to win the tournament than what the implied probability says, then that is a good value. Finding the greatest values is what will allow you to profit in the betting world over a long span of time.

Historically, longshots rarely win the World Cup as no team priced above +2000 has won since 1998. Favourites have a very low return on investment traditionally as well, and things will be more unpredictable than ever this year with the tournament increasing from a 16 team single knockout to a 32 team past the group stage. Winners usually come within the top seven teams at odds between +600 and +1400.

Betting well in advance of the tournament will give you the best opportunity to find value in quickly rising countries, but there is also a lot of risk involved as injuries, coaching changes, or team regression is more likely to occur over a long period of time. Lines are sharpest and public bias is highest 2-4 weeks in advance, making it difficult to find value. The easiest way to find value all the time is shopping for the best lines on multiple sportsbooks. This will dramatically increase your return on investment over time by maximizing your potential profits on each wager.

Top Goalscorer / Golden Boot

Kylian Mbappe (France) leads the way in Golden boot odds sitting at +600 on Betovo, and Harry Kane (England) is only slightly behind at +700. These are two of the best scorers at the tournament on two of the best teams, and the award goes to the tournament's leading goalscorer with assists as the tiebreaker. After these two there is a larger gap, but Lionel Messi (Argentina) comes in at +1200 despite his age and tournament availability in question. Elite goalscorer Erling Haaland (Norway) ranks slightly behind Messi at +1400, playing for Norway who has a worse all around team than Argentina. Lamine Yamal (Spain) has the same odds as Haaland, being the top scorer on the tournament favourite.

This is an extremely difficult market to predict as team progression matters a lot more than individual player skill, and the tournament has never been more unpredictable expanding from 32 to 48 teams. Finalists will play eight games, and teams who fail to make it past the group stage will only play three. If you're looking for value, bet on players that play for teams with favourable brackets that are likely to play significant minutes.

The top betting sites in Canada will provide markets for which country will finish the highest in the final World Cup standings based on their confederation. Here is a breakdown of the top contenders for each of the six confederations.

UEFA

The European confederation has the most tournament spots at 16, and there are numerous serious contenders to win the 2026 World Cup. Spain, England, and France are the top contenders, as they also rank top three in outright odds. Even if you don’t have confidence in one of these teams winning the World Cup, betting on this market will allow you to remove Brazil and Argentina from the equation.

CONMEBOL

Brazil and Argentina lead the way as the most likely to be the last South American team standing. There are only six teams from this confederation (potential for a seventh qualifier), but five teams rank in the top 20 in outright odds. Betting on this market will allow you to remove the powerhouse European teams from the equation, and potentially find some value in less talked about nations.

CAF

Nine African teams have qualified with the potential for a 10th but either way, it will be the second largest confederation. Morocco and Senegal are the top contenders, and this market gives you the chance to bet on one of these nations despite the fact that no African team has ever won the World Cup. Morocco had the confederations best finish in 2022 coming in 4th after upsetting Portugal.

AFC

Japan is the clear favourite to come out on top of the eight or nine Asian teams ranking 20th in outright odds. The other teams from this confederation are pretty far behind and Japan has one of the easier group draws, but anything can happen in a tournament of this size.

CONCACAF

USA and Mexico are the top contenders in the confederation consisting of six or seven North American, Central American, and Caribbean teams. As host teams, these countries will be inflated in the outright markets, but you may be able to find solid value for them in a market like this that is much less popular.

OFC

New Zealand is the only country representing Oceania currently, but one more spot could potentially be claimed by New Caledonia to create a market here.

The “Reach the final” market is similar to the outright market, with the key difference being that your team just needs to win their semifinal matchup – the result of the finals will not matter. Argentina for example is +800 to win the tournament, but just +400 to make the finals. Outright odds for the top teams are cut in half for the most part, as you are significantly improving your chances to win by eliminating a high variance match against a difficult opponent in the championship game.

This market is particularly attractive for teams like England who consistently make deep runs in the tournament but struggle to win, as they have failed to do so since 1966. It is also a great market for teams that will likely end up on the easier side of the bracket, that have hopes of making a deep run but a slim shot against a tournament favourite like Spain.

The group draws are set, with just four UEFA qualifiers and two qualifiers for the rest of the field still to be determined before the tournament. UEFA A, B, C, and D, as well as FIFA 1, and 2 qualifier spots have been drawn into specific groups, but there are still four teams in contention for each UEFA spot and three teams in contention for each FIFA spot. Despite six of the 12 groups still having one team undetermined, you can still be on which team you think will finish first in each group. You can even bet on the qualifier spot despite only knowing a handful of teams that this could be.

When it comes to group betting, it’s best to search for value in balanced groups that don’t have an overwhelming favourite. It could be worth taking a shot on a 2nd or 3rd favourite in a group if you think they have a much better chance to beat the favourite than the odds are indicating. On the other hand, you should avoid betting on heavy favourites to win weak groups as their prices will be inflated, providing limited value for you when upsets can occur at any time in a tournament like this. Schedule order can also play a bigger factor than you think, as opening against a weaker opponent can build confidence and create momentum, while closing out against your biggest rival makes things much less predictable.

This market gives you the opportunity to predict exactly when each team will be eliminated from the 2026 FIFA World Cup. For example, you could bet on team USA to exit in round 16 with odds of +225. This market is much less common, but you will be able to find it on some sportsbooks.

This is a great market to use for three different scenarios. One is hedging an outright winner bet. For example, if you placed a $100 bet on France to win at +500, you will potentially profit $500. If they reach the semifinals and you place a $20 hedge bet on them being eliminated at this stage at odds of +700, then you will still profit $480 if your original bet wins, but you will also profit $40 if they are eliminated in the semifinals.

Hedging makes the most sense after the group stage when the bracket is set and you can easily target opportunities similar to the example we just used. This market is also great for fading overrated teams that you expect to exit earlier than most, and betting against teams with difficult bracket paths who are likely to face a tough opponent in the knockout stage before the quarterfinals.

This market allows you to bet on which team will finish with the best record among each group's third place finishers. This is much more relevant at this year's World Cup, since the top 8 third place teams in each group will advance past the group stage to the Round of 32. This market is extremely unpredictable and should only be treated as an entertainment bet. There could be some value betting on strong teams in a “group of death” with three favourites.

Here are five tips that we use to spot value in World Cup betting markets. Read through these examples, and try to implement some of these strategies when the tournament rolls around in June.

• Line Shopping: Football World Cup odds will slightly vary between sportsbooks as they each have different systems put in place that react differently to betting volume. Picking up on small differences will make a big difference in your profits long term. For example, a $10 bet on England to win at +500 will net you $50, but you will net $55 at +550 from another sportsbook. This may seem small, but doing this on every bet will add up to a massive number over time.
• Early vs. Late Betting: Simply put, early betting is higher risk high reward, and late betting is lower risk lower reward. Betting well in advance of an event will give you a better price before the public money affects the odds, but this also opens you up to potential injuries occurring during that lengthy time span that could significantly lower your chances of winning.
• Implied Probability: Odds can be converted into a probability that helps you better understand what chance the sportsbook thinks you have at winning a bet. If you use decimal odds, you just need to do 1 divide by your odds, and multiply that decimal by 100 to get an implied probability. For example, 1 ÷ 4.00 = 0.25, or a 20% chance.
• Identifying Value: Value is identified when your estimated probability is greater than the implied probability. For example, if team USA has an implied probability of 11.1% to win the World Cup but I think that they have a 15% chance, that’s a value. Historically, value can be found in the outright market on teams in the 5-7 range, whose chances to win the tournament aren’t as different from the top favorites as the odds indicate.
• When NOT to Bet: Avoid betting on heavy favourites as there is likely little value to be found by doing so in a tournament as volatile as this one (48 teams). Also avoid betting on popular teams whose odds have been inflated by public bias.

Odds will vary between sportsbooks based on the different risk models that each bookmaker uses. These differences may look small, but line shopping and getting 5-10% better odds each time will significantly improve your long term profits. Sportsbooks that offer the best odds rank highly on our list of best betting sites in Canada, but smaller books oftentimes will provide even better odds in order to compete against the industry leaders. Taking advantage of odds promotions is another way to increase your profits, so make sure to pay attention to the bonuses that will start to arise closer to the start of the tournament.

Now is a great time to get in on the World Cup 2026 betting action, and find value before public bias inflates the soccer World Cup odds and lines get sharper. You can place outright wagers on tournament winners, Golden Boot winners, group winners, stages of elimination, and much more. Finding value is the key to profiting in the betting world, so look at odds as an implied probability, and only place wagers that you believe have a better chance to win than the odds indicate. If you are more risk averse and want to have a clearer picture of the rosters and tournament landscape, you can wait and take advantage of the numerous free bets or promotions that will likely be offered closer to the tournament. There will be unlimited betting opportunities in a tournament of this size, so pace yourself and remember to always gamble responsibly. Set a strict budget for yourself and only wager with money that you are comfortable losing.