UFC 317: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira Main Event Predictions & Betting Odds - June 28
All odds provided by Betway.
Ilia Topuria vs. No. 2 Charles Oliveira Lightweight Championship Bout Betting Odds
This main event has been circled on every UFC fan’s calendar since it was announced. You know it’s gonna be good when betting sites give it -800 odds not to go the distance. Undefeated Ilia Topuria (16-0) will have to get by UFC legend Charles Oliveira (35-10, 1 NC) to do win another belt.
The move up in weight class does leave Topuria at a seeming disadvantage physically: he is 5’7”, Oliveira is 5’10”. Topuria’s reach is just 69 inches, while Oliveira’s is 74. Topuria is the younger fighter by seven years, however.
Topuria comes up after thoroughly dominating the featherweight division by starching arguably the two greatest fighters in 145-pound history in Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. And those were not just finishes, he knocked both out cold. Oliveira, meanwhile, has had an up-and down time since his championship run ended with a loss to Makhachev. Most recently, he won a real barnburner against Michael Chandler that somehow lasted the full 25 minutes.
Topuria finishing Holloway (who had never even been knocked down previously) and Volkanovski should give Oliveira pause. Do Bronx has had some of the worst striking defense you will see in the upper reaches of the UFC recently, and Topuria doesn’t need to land often to make the impact he needs.
He may be smaller, but El Matador is so quick and powerful that it might not matter. If he can avoid Oliveira’s inevitable takedown attempts, Topuria should win this one handily. The Brazilian could swipe a shock victory with a submission—which isn’t out of the realm of possibility with him—but Topuria has shown himself to be smart and shrewd even in the clinch and on the mat.
Oddsmakers believe that the Georgian fighter will finish this one quickly, as the over/under on the total rounds is set at just 1.5 rounds. Considering six of Topuria’s last seven fights have ended before the bell and 19 of Oliveira’s last 22 have as well, it does make some sense.
However, Do Bronx has reached the final bell in his last two fights. Meanwhile, Topuria may be a knockout machine, but he has generally taken a round or two to feel his opponent out before going for the kill. Topuria’s last four straight finishes have come one minute into the second round or later. It took three rounds against Holloway, and two against Volkanovski.
Do Bronx has not been finished in the first round since 2015, so we like the over 1.5 rounds bet here. You can get it at decent -145 odds, or you can pair it with Topuria’s moneyline to get slightly more enticing +110 UFC betting odds on the parlay.
Best Bet: Fight Total Rounds Over 1.5 (-145)/Betway
