UFC Baku: Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. Main Card Predictions & Betting Odds - June 21 *(3PM)*
All odds provided by Betway.
No. 4 Jamahal Hill vs. No. 7 Khalil Rountree Jr. Light Heavyweight Bout Betting Odds
The rest of this card in Baku may leave a little to be desired, but the matchmakers look like they put together a very good one here in the light heavyweight main event. Former champ Jamahal Hill (12-3, 1 NC) and former title challenger (13-6, 1 NC) both got humbled by Alex Pereira recently, but they’re both exciting in their own rights.
They have combined for 22 UFC fights, and 17 of those have been ended via finishes. We think that will be the case again here, but not as early as sportsbooks seem to think. Most Hill or Rountree fights end in finishes. But as they’ve risen through the ranks to fight better fighters in bigger spots, they have taken their time to feel out opponents more often, and vice versa. Three of Rountree’s last four have reached the start of the third round, and ditto for Jamahal Hill.
As the pick ‘em odds suggest, this one’s a little too close to call, though we would lean towards Hill as the more technically sound striker both offensively and defensively. However, we prefer a total round bet here. You could take over 1.5 rounds at -190, but we’re going to get greedy and snag a bit more value by going one round more.
Best Bet: Fight Total Rounds Over 2.5 (+100)
No. 11 Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes Lightweight Bout Betting Odds
Rafael Fiziev (12-4) has lost three in a row, but they’ve all been tough ones. Two close decision losses to Justin Gaethje and a leg injury against Mateusz Gamrot. He has had seven bonuses in his last eight fights, so need to worry about his spot on the roster—but his spot in the top 15 is under heavy fire here.
Ignacio Bahamondes (17-5) is on a roll right now. He’s just 27, in his physical prime (he’s got a massive seven-inch height advantage to go with a four-inch reach advantage), and he’s won six of his last seven fights, including his last three straight, all via finish. Fiziev is a big step up in terms of quality of opponent for the Chilean youngster, but we think he will be up to the task.
He fought at UFC Noche at the Sphere against a Mexican fighter and got him out in Round 1. Something similar could happen with all the pressure on Fiziev as the only Azerbaijani fighter on the card—and probably on the UFC roster as a whole.
We don’t think Bahamondes will finish Fiziev, who is tough as a bull. But his varied and volume striking paired with his massive size advantage will do enough to confuse Fiziev and impress judges on his way to a win on the cards. We won’t bet on method of victory though. Bahamondes’ moneyline odds are more than good enough for us.
Best Bet: Ignacio Bahamondes Moneyline (-125)/Betway
