UFC Houston: Strickland vs. Hernandez Main Event Betting Predictions & Odds

The UFC hasn’t put on a proper event in nearly a month, as their last event was at the UFC Apex without a crowd two weeks ago and there was no event last weekend. But we’re back in a big way here with UFC Fight Night 267 in Houston, Texas live from the Toyota Center on Saturday night.

And be forewarned: this one will not start at the standard 10pm ET that UFC events usually do. Being that it’s a Fight Night and it’s in Houston, the main card will instead begin at 8pm ET, two hours earlier than usual. Set your watches people!

There are surprisingly four fights on the main card featuring ranked or well-known fighters. The main event, obviously, is the big one. Former middleweight champion and No. 3 contender Sean Strickland is looking to get another shot at the strap as he takes on No. 4 contender Anthony Hernandez, who comes in as a pretty significant favorite. We break down the tape and give you our picks and predictions for this massive middleweight scrap. And don’t forget those top UFC betting odds as well!

Note: None of our best bets feature odds shorter than -200.

UFC Houston (Fight Night 267): Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez Picks & Odds - February 21

All odds provided by Betway.

Tale of the Tape:

Category	Sean Strickland	Anthony Hernandez
Height	6’1” (1.85 m)	6’0” (1.83 m)
Weight	185 lbs (84 kg)	185 lbs (84 kg)
Reach	76” (193 cm)	75” (191 cm)
Age	34	32
Nickname	“Tarzan”	“Fluffy”
Fighting Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed/Minute	5.95 (42 % accuracy)	4.59 (62 % accuracy)
Strikes Absorbed/Minute	4.57 (60 % defense)	2.53 (49 % defense)
Takedown Average	0.73 (64 % accuracy)	6.46 (48 % accuracy)
Takedown Defense	76 %	68 %
Current Ranking	No. 3	No. 4
Fighting Out Of	Windang, New South Wales, Australia	Puebla, Mexico

Fight Analysis & Prediction

No. 3 Sean Strickland vs. No. 4 Anthony Hernandez Ranked Middleweight Bout Betting Odds

Fighter	Moneyline	Spread	Rounds	Win by Decision	Win by KO/TKO/DQ	Win by Submission	Go the Distance
Sean Strickland	+220	+5.5 (-120)	O4.5 (-180)	+350	+700	+6,500	Yes (-150)
Anthony Hernandez	-280	-5.5 (-120)	U4.5 (+135)	+135	+550	+275	No (+110)

One would have to think that this is something of a title fight eliminator considering we have two of the top four contenders in the middleweight division here. Sean Strickland lost two title fights in the last two years, so it may be tougher for him to get another shot even if he wins. But neither of those losses came against the current champ, Khamzat Chimaev, so there is still a chance.

Anthony Hernandez, meanwhile, is on a roll like no other, coming into this one on an eight-fight winning streak that stretches back to the summer of COVID in 2020. He had a rough run early in his UFC career after claiming the LFA title in 2018, but he’s really found his groove lately. He has beaten some solid fighters recently, including No. 11 contender Roman Dolidze and No. 5 Brendan Allen.

It feels like this is all set up for a Hernandez win. And a lot of times the fight gods don’t like those scenarios. But we think they let this one slide. Usually, Strickland is able to out-cardio and out-work his opponents, but Hernandez has a great tank as well.

“Fluffy” is not the most precise or active puncher, but he throws with bad intentions, and he’s got more power than Strickland. However, ultimately we think Hernandez will get this decision win by using the Dricus du Plessis playbook from his first fight with Strickland: exhaust him with a lot of takedown attempts and top control time.

This could be a close decision in the end, but we think Hernandez gets enough takedowns and enough control time (he leads the division in the latter) to sway the judges in Houston.

Best Bet: Anthony Hernandez to Win via Decision (+135)