UFC Vegas 106 Main Card Predictions, Best Bets, & Betting Odds - May 17
All odds provided by Betway.
No. 8 Gilbert Burns vs. No. 12 Michael Morales Welterweight Bout Betting Odds
Michael Morales (17-0) is finally putting his undefeated record to the test here in his first main event against Gilbert Burns (22-8). There are a few ways to look at this scrap. First off, Morales is just 25, while Burns is turning 39 very soon. Morales also has an insane eight-inch reach advantage on top of a two-inch height advantage.
But then there’s the question of experience. Morales has beaten a few respectable names, but not the type of guys that Durinho has fought. Burns has lost five of his last eight fights, but those have all come to former champs, or guys who are the No. 1 contender. And he also lost to Khamzat Chimaev, though that defeat is almost a mark of honor. Chimaev, who is 13-0, had never gone the distance before Burns, who took him the full 15.
Burns looked good in that fight too, showing that “Durinho” doesn’t just mean Burns is a “little tough guy” but also that he is durable as they come. Since 2018, Burns has been finished just twice, and both of those finishes came in the third round, one of which came in the back half of the frame.
Morales has a huge advantage on the feet, and we expect him to be able (and to want) to keep it there, especially against a jiu-jitsu expert like Burns. He will win that battle, but Burns has shown that he can tangle with the best of them, and his experience with high level strikers is something Morales does not have.
We can’t bet on the near-40-year-old here, but the odds seem way out of whack in Morales’ favor as well. He may be undefeated, but betting apps are treating him like a champion in his first ever main event. Burns will probably lose, but he will make it respectable by hanging in there for most if not all of those 25 minutes.
Best Bet: Fight Total Rounds Over 3.5 (-120)
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig Light Heavyweight Bout Betting Odds
In the co-main event, we get a classic clash of styles with Scottish submission artist and UFC veteran Paul Craig (17-9-1) taking on striker and UFC newcomer Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1). The 37-year-old Craig is returning to light heavyweight after a less than fruitful 1-3 stay at welterweight.
Bellato is a real wild man, which is what makes this one interesting. He simply bears down on his opponent with crazy aggression, which could allow Craig, who has 13 submission wins on his resume, the chance to sink in one of his signature chokes or holds.
However, Craig has to avoid the Bellato onslaught first, which will come hard and fast right from the jump. The worry is that Craig has been knocked out twice in his last five fights and has a suspect chin. We won’t go full on Bellato, however, just because of the lack of value and the experience advantage for Craig. Instead we’re going to take the under on this fight to go 1.5 rounds. Either Bellato starches Craig, or the Scot gets in there for a quick submission.
Best Bet: Fight Total Rounds Under 1.5 (-150)/Betway
