Who Will Be The Next NFL MVP? Early 2024 MVP Odds

Alex Murray
By:
Alex Murray
23 Jun 23
Betting Magazine
News - NFL
Who Will Be The Next NFL MVP? Early 2024 MVP Odds

NFL teams have completed their early offseason programs with the conclusion of mandatory minicamps, so with the official schedules out and everyone’s eyes now looking toward the 2024 season, it’s time to take a gander at the favorites to win next season’s MVP award. As you might expect, the outright MVP betting markets on most  NFL betting sites and betting apps have the reigning MVP, Patrick Mahomes, listed with the shortest odds to win it once again.

Highlights

  • Patrick Mahomes is the odds on favorite to win the 2024 NFL MVP
  • Justin Jefferson has the shortest odds for a non-QB at +9,900
  • Joe Burrow and Josh Allen are the only others with odds shorter than +1,000

NFL MVP 2024 Very Early Betting Odds 

Never has the importance of the quarterback position been more evident than looking at the preseason odds table for next year’s NFL MVP. The top 27 players are QBs, with guys like Davis Mills and Ryan Tannehill sporting identical odds to the top non-QB, Justin Jefferson. All odds provided by Bet99 sportsbook.

Player

2024 NFL MVP Odds

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

+580

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

+660

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

+760

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

+1,100

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

+1,300

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

+1,400

Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

+1,500

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

+1,700

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

+1,900

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

+2,000

Justin Fields, Chicago Bears

+2,100

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

+2,900

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers

+3,400

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

+3,400

Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos

+3,900

Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints

+3,900

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

+3,900

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

+4,900

Daniel Jones, New York Giants

+4,900

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

+4,900

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

+4,900

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

+4,900

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers

+4,900

Mac Jones, New England Patriots

+6,900

NFL MVP Odds Trends

Safe to say, a bet on any non-QB to win MVP is akin to throwing your money in the garbage disposal considering only one non-QB has won the award since 2007, and that was Adrian Peterson’s inhuman 2,000 yard campaign. In the last ten years, only two players that were atop the odds table before the start of the season have gone on to actually win, though the guy in second has won three times.

Since Cam Newton won in 2015 with +5,200 preseason odds, we’ve seen a lot of long shots win this award: Matt Ryan at +7,500 in 2016, Patrick Mahomes at +3,525 in 2018, Lamar Jackson at +4,000 in 2019, and Aaron Rodgers at +3,000 and +1,100 in 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Patrick Mahomes Odds Analysis

Since winning his first MVP in 2018, Patrick Mahomes has been a bookmaker favorite, finishing the preseason atop the MVP odds board in three of the past four years. Mahomes is always a pretty safe bet because he’s been in the MVP conversation nearly every year he’s been a starter, but with the recent trends and +580 odds in June, there’s not enough value on the rocket-armed Texan yet.

Joe Burrow Odds Analysis

The Cincinnati Bengals are on the up and up, and it seems like only a matter of time before they and their quarterback, Joe Burrow, start racking up awards. Burrow’s got a ton of great pieces around him and just the 17th-toughest schedule despite having won their division last year. If you can wait for his odds to rise to somewhere around +700 to +800, Burrow will be a great value pick here.

Josh Allen Odds Analysis

Allen’s been elite for a few years now, but there are still moments of madness that keep him from making that jump up to the Mahomes tier. He was on top of last year’s preseason odds table at +700, so his +760 odds here are not super enticing, especially considering all of the offseason drama with his top target, Stefon Diggs. Allen would be an amazing value at +1,000 or higher, but until the Diggs saga is resolved, there’s too much risk and not enough reward here.

Best Of The Rest

If there was a bet for the 2025 MVP right now, Justin Herbert would be one of our favorites, but 2024 seems a bit premature for him. The best value on the board here is probably Jalen Hurts, who had a magnificent campaign last year and sits at +1,300 odds.

He’s the best dual threat quarterback in the league and his passing is only going to get better. The Eagles have the toughest schedule in the NFL, but they’re so well-rounded we doubt it matters. If the Eagles win 12+ games, Hurts will have to be in the conversation.

Aaron Rodgers in the Big Apple is also intriguing at +1,500 and after his impressive showing in the playoffs last year Trevor Lawrence at +1,700 is also worth a look, especially considering the Jaguars have the 10th-easiest schedule. For a real long shot, we’d take a look at Jared Goff at +3,400 odds: the NFC North is wide open, the Lions looked better and better as last season went on, and the Detroit offense is quietly one of the most talented in football.

Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.