The NFL season rolls on as we enter Week 11 of the 2023 campaign, and just like every other, we spy with our little eye something that offers value in the player prop sector. We’ll be covering a range of betting markets such as anytime touchdown, rush yards, receiving yards, and more from the top NFL betting sites and betting apps available.
Best Player Props For NFL Week 11 NFL Betting Odds
- A couple of tight ends see perfect matchups they should take advantage of
- Rico Dowdle should continue his upward trajectory in the Dallas backfield
- Josh Allen is going to get back to basics on Sunday in the run game
Best NFL Player Props, NFL Week 11 Sunday Slate - Sunday, November 19th
2023 player prop record: 22-11 All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
Josh Allen - Over 30.5 Rush Yards (-110)
In steps quarterbacks coach Joe Brady after the firing of OC Ken Dorsey, and while he won’t have time to implement his own system, he likely has some different ideas than Dorsey, otherwise they wouldn’t have promoted him. What Brian Daboll did so well when he was running things was his use Josh Allen’s legs, and we expect Brady to recognize that.
Allen hasn’t run much this season, but with the new regime we’re expecting him to have more freedom in that respect. It’s also worth mentioning that the New York Jets are giving up the most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this year (30.6). With their strong pass rush constantly flushing QBs out of the pocket, we should see Allen tucking and running a lot on Sunday.
Rico Dowdle - Over 26.5 Rush Yards (-115 odds)
The Dallas Cowboys backfield has been Tony Pollard’s and Tony Pollard’s alone for most of the 2023 season, but there was a sliver of hope for the rest of the running back room last week when Rico Dowdle got 12 totes for 72 yards. It came in a blowout win, but with Pollard struggling over the last month and a half, Dowdle could be the guy to spell him and keep him fresh.
Owner Jerry Jones spoke glowingly of Dowdle, even saying that he thought he gave the Cowboys a nice “1-2 punch” in the backfield. If Dowdle even gets half of the work he did last week, he’ll have a great chance to hit the over here. It helps that the Cowboys are playing the worst team in the league, the Carolina Panthers.
That means two things, both of them good for Dowdle: the Cowboys are going to be leading for most of the game, which means more running plays, and they could blowout the Panthers, which means backups like Dowdle would see more work. It’s also important to note that the Panthers have been giving up 118.2 rush yards per game to running backs this year, second-most in the NFL.
Luke Muskgrave - Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115 odds)
Green Bay Packers rookie tight end Luke Muskgrave has really been heating up recently. He had a slow start to his NFL career, but he had 51 and 64 receiving yards in his last two contests. He’s also gone over his receiving yards prop number in six of nine games this season.
It’s somewhat curious why Muskgrave’s number is so low this week. Not only has he been on fire, but the expected game script would suggest that the Packers are going to be passing the ball a lot as they chase the Chargers’ high-octane offense. Not to mention the fact that the Chargers have one of the worst pass defenses in the league. Specifically, they give up 68.3 receiving yards per game to tight ends, which is second-most in the NFL. The 2023 first round pick could have a field day.
Terry McLaurin - Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115 odds)
Despite the fact that Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell is leading the NFL in passing yards through 10 weeks, top wideout Terry McLaurin has been having a bit of a down year. However, he’s been picking it up a bit recently, and now, he’s got the New York Giants and their questionable pass defense in his sights.
The Giants aren’t a terrible pass defense in general, but when it comes to stopping receivers on the outside, the only team worse than them is the team they’re playing on Sunday. They’ve given up the second-most receiving yards to wideouts this year, so McLaurin should have dollar signs in his eyes this week. McLaurin has also gone over this week’s 57.5 number in six of nine games this year, including four of his last five.
SUNDAY NIGHT BONUS - Any T.J. Hockenson Prop
Hockenson has been arguably the best tight end in the NFL this season, and the quarterback change he went through recently has not changed that one bit. He’s actually seeing more work with Josh Dobbs at the controls, with 18 total receptions in the two games Dobbs has played in. He’s also put up 203 yards across those two games, and this week he’s got the Denver Broncos defense, who haven’t been able to stop tight ends all year.
The Broncos are giving up 68.9 receiving yards per game to tight ends this year, most in the NFL, so a matchup with the best tight end in the game right now seems like a situation we couldn’t pass up. Hockenson’s props are not available as of this writing, but any receptions prop at 7.5 or lower or any receiving yards prop at 70 or under should be smashed. His anytime touchdown prop is probably not a bad look either.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.