Buccaneers vs. Panthers NFL Saturday Odds, Analysis, & Best Bets

There are a few win-and-you’re-in, lose-and-you’re-out scenarios across the NFL in Week 18, the final of the regular season. One of those is a primetime matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) hosting the Carolina Panthers (8-8) on Saturday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium. Whoever wins takes the NFC South, and whoever loses misses the postseason.

There is, of course, the long shot possibility involving the Atlanta Falcons. But they won’t play until Sunday. That means the Bucs and Panthers will be playing like everything is on the line in this one. Read on for our NFL betting analysis and best bets for the first NFL game of the New Year!

NFL Saturday Week 18 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers Odds & Picks - Jan. 3

All odds provided by Betway.

Buccaneers vs. Panthers Game Prediction

Last week it seemed as if nobody wanted to win the NFC South. Carolina looked pitiful in a blowout loss to the Seahawks, and the Buccaneers lost at home to the Quinn Ewers-led Miami Dolphins.

But all that doesn’t matter now: it all comes down to this Saturday afternoon matchup in Tampa Bay. Well, sort of. If the Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, the Panthers win the NFC South no matter what. But we won’t know the result of that game until a full day after this one, so both teams will need to play like their lives depend on it.

They had a similar situation a couple of weeks ago where the Panthers beat the Bucs at home 23-20 to show everyone that they are, in fact, serious contenders. For the NFC South title, at least.

But betting apps have the Buccaneers favored in this one, which would seemingly play into Carolina’s hands. They are a solid 7-6 straight up as an underdog this season. However, that mark is deceiving. They have gone an excellent 5-2 as a home dog, but have not been nearly as impressive as a road dog, going just 2-4.

Tampa, meanwhile, has the experience advantage here. They’ve won this division two years running and know what it takes to win it. They have also beaten the Panthers at home for five straight seasons coming into this campaign. The Panthers haven’t won in Tampa Bay since Baker Mayfield was a Brown and Tom Brady was a Patriot.

Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline (-158)

Buccaneers vs. Panthers Player Prop Best Bet

Rico Dowdle has been one of the nicer surprises of the season, coming out of nowhere to post the first 1,000-yard rushing campaign of his career. However, we’re looking at his pass-catching abilities here.

He has not had more than 15 receiving yards in three weeks—but he had 21, 36, and 55 in the three games prior. The last time these two teams played a couple of weeks ago, Dowdle had just 14 yards receiving. However, he had six targets and four receptions in that game, so he’s unlucky to not hit 20 there.

And most RBs do hit 20 against this Buccaneers defense: they allow more receiving yards to running backs (52.1 per game, nearly 10 more than the next worst team) than any unit in the NFL. They gave up 29 to De’Von Achane last week, 82 on eight receptions to Bijan Robinson a couple of weeks before that, and 35+ to both Bam Knight and Michael Carter of the Cardinals a couple of weeks before that.

Best Bet: Rico Dowdle Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)