Turkey Day is finally here, and the slate is chock full of exciting divisional matchups to watch. Even one on Black Friday for the first time ever! That game will be contested between two AFC East rivals in the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins. As you probably could have guessed, the Dolphins go into MetLife Stadium as massive moneyline favorites on all NFL betting sites and betting apps.
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Black Friday NFL Betting Odds
- The Miami Dolphins come in with a big time -9.5 point spread for this one
- Bookmakers have set the total at 41.0, one of the lowest Miami has seen this year
- The over on Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert’s 59.5 rushing yards prop offers good value
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins NFL Betting Odds - Friday, November 24th
The New York Jets are hosting the game but they won’t have much of an advantage after suffering arguably their worst loss of the season last week against another division rival in the Buffalo Bills before making a change at QB. The Dolphins, on the other hand, enter this game off the back of a surprisingly dicey 20-13 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
|New York Jets
Many New York Jets fans may have looked to the sky and thanked God that Zach Wilson is no longer their starting quarterback, but that elation was probably short-lived considering they announced that Tim Boyle would be their starter moving forward. Does anyone really know Tim Boyle? Well, you’re about to.
You know how a lot of NFL flops are often world-beaters in college, much like Wilson. Yeah, that wasn’t Boyle. The Hartford native played college ball at UConn and Eastern Kentucky and he did whatever the opposite is of lighting the world on fire. In 37 games, he threw 12 touchdowns and 26 interceptions.
Somehow, he still got into the league and has hung on like a barnacle for five years hoping for this very moment. He has played for three teams in the last three years and thrown three touchdowns against nine interceptions in that span. So, yeah, this guy is pretty terrible, and he may actually be worse than Wilson.
He’ll be going up against a Dolphins defense that’s a lot better than people give them credit for. Miami has only given up more than 21 points once since their Week 4 debacle against the Bills. Meanwhile, the Jets haven’t scored more than 20 in their last five outings.
The Jets pass defense is pretty good, but they haven’t seen speed like this. It will be interesting to see how they go about stopping both Tyreek Hill and Miami’s potent rushing offense. While New York has been a top five defense against the pass, they’ve been a bottom three unit against the run, so Raheem Mostert could have a field day on Black Friday.
We simply can’t imagine a world where Boyle is able to keep it even marginally close against Tua Tagovailoa and company, so the spread seems like a foregone conclusion here. We don’t love spreads over a touchdown, but at -9.5, it’s still in single digits, so we’re all over that at -110 odds.
For the total, the Jets make it very tough because they’ve gone under in seven of their ten games, but Miami has only had two games that have gone under this 41-point total. After what Buffalo did to New York last week, we can’t imagine what Miami will do to them on fewer days of prep and rest. Not to mention the drama and distraction that a QB change brings, so we’re going with the over. Miami might just do it all by themselves.
Player Props To Consider
As we mentioned, the Jets haven’t been able to prove that they can stop the run this season. And with Mostert and the second-ranked rushing offense coming to town, New York could be in real trouble. De’Von Achane is out again, but Mostert has had no problem finding holes without the change of pace rookie.
The books have Mostert’s rushing yards prop set at 59.5 at -115 odds, and the Miami back has topped that total in four of his last six and six of his last nine. This number is right around where Mostert’s usually is, so it seems the books haven’t accounted for how poor New York’s rushing defense is or how much Miami is going to have the ball on Friday afternoon. We’re smashing the heck out of this prop and so will Mostert.
Tyreek Hill’s receptions number somehow sits at just 5.5, which is nuts considering he’s hit that number in six straight games. However, they have tempered the excitement for this one by dropping the odds all the way to -149, which is not ideal. However, we would expect him to hit this one simply because that’s what he always does. Hill’s -110 odds to score a touchdown are also a great bet that offers a little more value, if that’s what you’re into. He’s scored in eight of ten games this year.
On the flip side, the Jets are likely to be playing catch up all game, and there’s really no one else to throw to for Boyle other than Garrett Wilson. Before last week’s ugly showing, Wilson had gone over his 52.5 total for this game in six straight. We expect him to get back on the horse here and hit the over at -115 odds.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.