Hopefully everyone is entering this weekend with a belly full of turkey and a bankroll full of cash to make some smart bets on Week 12’s NFL Sunday slate. We won’t be looking at moneyline or spread odds, but we’ll be taking a look at all the best player props that are offering the most value from the top NFL betting sites and betting apps.
NFL Week 12 Sunday Slate Spread Picks NFL Betting Odds
- Derrick Henry and Jaylen Warren should both do well against porous run defenses
NFL Week 12 Sunday Slate Player Props Betting Odds - Sunday, November 26th
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
Derrick Henry - Over 69.5 Rush Yards (-110 odds) vs. Carolina Panthers
It’s no secret that Derrick Henry has been having a frustrating couple of weeks here recently. He’s managed just 62 combined rushing yards over his past two games, which wouldn’t even have hit the over he’s got for this one game against the Panthers. However, there is reason to believe that King Henry is in line for a big bounce back performance here.
The Panthers are pretty close to being a unanimous choice as the worst team in the league right now, so we can expect the Titans to be able to score on them and play from ahead, where they like to be. That would be a great advantage for Henry, because the more time the Titans have in the lead, the more opportunities Henry is going to get.
While we love Henry, the fact that he went over this total in five of seven games prior to this two-week struggle he’s currently on, and the storyline that would lead to a bounce back performance here for him, it’s the Panthers that pushed us toward this pick. They have the ninth-worst rush defense in the league, and they’re coming off a rough game where they allowed the struggling Cowboys rush offense to go over 100 yards. We like Henry to have a dominant game here and hit the over on his 69.5 rush yards prop.
Jaylen Warren - Over 48.5 Rush Yards (-115 odds) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
If there has been a better running back in the NFL over the past three weeks than Jaylen Warren, we haven’t made their acquaintance. Believe it or not, Warren’s 318 yards over the past three weeks are tops in the NFL, meaning that the diminutive back is definitely in fine form right now. He’s still not getting a ton of carries, but he has had his workload nearly double over the past three weeks (11.7 carries) compared to the first seven games (6.4).
He’s also been far more efficient than the guy playing in front of him, Najee Harris. However, no matter how they split the carries in Week 12, we would expect both backs to have solid days considering they’re going against a bruised and battered Bengals team that is giving up the third-most rushing yards per game this year.
The Steelers’ new offensive brass (led by new OC and former RBs coach Eddie Faulkner, make of that what you will) will want to jump out to an early lead and let their backs drag them home, so Warren should hit the over on his 48.5 rush yards prop here no problem.
David Njoku - Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110 odds) vs. Denver Broncos
One of the best kept secrets this season has been the solid campaign Cleveland Browns tight end David Njoku has been putting together for the anemic Browns offense. He has been on an absolute roll recently despite all of the quarterback controversy the franchise has been dealing with this season. If anything, rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson getting the start is good for Njoku, who can serve as a nice security blanket for the NFL freshman.
Njoku has been overachieving greatly by oddsmakers standards: he has hit the over on his receiving yards prop in six of his last seven outings. He has also gone over the 40-yard threshold in four of his last five games, and in Week 12, he has his biggest plus matchup of the season against a Broncos defensive unit that simply cannot stop tight ends. No team in the NFL has allowed more than Denver’s 722 yards to tight ends this year, so we like Njoku to hit the over at Mile High.
Zay Flowers - Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110 odds) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Death, taxes, and a Brandon Staley defensive unit that can’t stop the pass to save their lives. We wouldn’t expect Staley to be on the job for much longer, but while he’s there, expect the same old Chargers secondary to allow Lamar Jackson to pick them apart in what we can only assume will be yet another shootout for L.A.
Jackson has been passing the ball perhaps better than he ever has in his NFL career, and with top target Mark Andrews on IR, there will have to be others stepping up. One of those will be rookie Zay Flowers, who has been their best weapon apart from Andrews this year.
The Chargers are the ideal defense to be playing when you’re trying to make up for the loss of such a playmaker: they’ve allowed their opponent’s top receiver to go for 75+ in every. single. game. They also allow the fourth-most yards to wide receivers specifically. We think Flowers is the top candidate to become Jackson’s favorite target, so he should be able to hit the over on this 62.5 yards prop no problem.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.