The 2023 NFL season is already starting to wind down as we turn to the back half of the campaign in Week 10. There are some great matchups on the Sunday slate, including one that will feature the Pittsburgh Steelers playing host to the Green Bay Packers. Neither team is dominant, but neither team has shown themselves to be a clear imposter yet either. As the home team, Pittsburgh comes in as the moneyline favorites on most NFL betting sites and betting apps.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Betting Odds
- The Steelers enter the contest as -3.0 point spread favorites at -120 odds
- As always with stingy Pittsburgh, the total is below 40 points, sitting at 39.0
- George Pickens’ receiving prop sits at a measly 45.5 yards
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers NFL Betting Odds - Sunday, November 12th
The Green Bay Packers got back in the good books last week with a big 20-3 win against the depleted Los Angeles Rams. It was a victory that was sorely needed by the Cheesehead faithful, which had witnessed four straight losses prior to Week 9. The Steelers, on the other hand, come in off a mini-bye after having beaten the rookie-led Tennessee Titans on Thursday night. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
|Pittsburgh Steelers||-175||-3.0 (-120)||O39.0 (-110)|
|Green Bay Packers||+145||+3.0 (+100)||U39.0 (-110)|
While the 5-3 Pittsburgh Steelers haven’t shown much in the way of consistency at home, going 3-2 in Pittsburgh so far this year, the 3-5 Green Bay Packers have been a little bit easier to predict when they hit the road, having lost their last three straight away games.
All three of those road defeats came at the hands of other teams that are below .500, for whatever that’s worth. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has only lost to the 49ers before they were smacked with injuries, the division-leading Jaguars, and the upstart Texans. It’s plain to see: the Steelers have been the better team this season. As Steelers fans can probably attest, that doesn’t always matter though.
However, there are also a couple of trends working in Pittsburgh’s favor. One is the fact that they will have had 10 days to prepare for this one, while Green Bay got the standard seven. The Steelers are 12-5 under Mike Tomlin in games following a Thursday night matchup; the veteran coach is always able to maximize his extra prep and rest time.
Tomlin also loves playing against rookie QBs, as we discussed last week. Tomlin was 23-4 against rookie QBs entering 2023, and after a loss to C.J. Stroud and a win against Will Levis, he’s up to 24-5, with four of those five losses coming on the road. We know, we know, Jordan Love isn’t a rookie. But, he kind of is, considering this year is his first getting any meaningful playing time.
With all of his turnovers (eight interceptions and two fumbles lost), Love is certainly playing like a rookie. The Packers have done a good job keeping Love clean this year, but that offensive line is going to have its handful with two of the top three players in terms of QB pressures this year (T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith) bearing down on them.
The Packers defense is not terrible, but not great either, so they should have success against the Steelers’ anemic offense. Nonetheless, as they do almost every week, we’re expecting the Steelers to cause Love to commit some turnovers, which Kenny Pickett and company will happily convert into enough points to somehow pull out a win. We don’t love the -3.0 point spread at -120, but considering the moneyline is way up at -170, the spread is the better value play here.
It’s been eight games for the Steelers now and their offense has shown as many signs of life as the defense has shown signs of slowing down. That’s to say, none. Case in point, they hit the under in seven of their eight games this year. Put all that together with a Packers offense that hasn’t scored more than 20 points since Week 2, and we’ve got a recipe for another under, with this one sitting at 39.0 points and -110 odds.
Player Props To Consider
It’s always a bit dicey to bet on props for Pittsburgh’s offensive players, but considering all the hubbub this week, we think George Pickens could be in for a big bounce back day. He had two catches for -1 yards last week and was not shy about voicing his frustrations in the media. Mike Tomlin had his back, however, which means it is likely that they get Pickens involved early and often, making his 45.5 receiving yards prop at -110 odds a real peach.
While the Steelers defense is stingy, they have been susceptible to the pass this year, as they have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wideouts so far in 2023. While Green Bay’s top wideout, Romeo Doubs, hasn’t gone for more than 36 yards in a game in a month, he should be able to reach his measly 37.5 receiving yards prop at -110 odds against this bend-don’t-break pass defense of the Steelers, especially if the Packers are chasing the game in the later stages.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.