UFC White House: Josh Hokit vs. Derrick Lewis Ranked Heavyweight Bout Picks & Odds - June 13
All odds provided by Powerplay.
Tale of the Tape:
| Category | Josh Hokit | Derrick Lewis |
| Height | 6’1” (1.85 m) | 6’3” (1.91 m) |
| Weight | 233 lbs (106 kg) | 261 lbs (118 kg) |
| Reach | 73” (183 cm) | 79” (183 cm) |
| Age | 28 | 41 |
| Nickname | The Incredible Hok | The Black Beast |
| Fighting Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Significant Strikes Landed/Minute | 9.25 | 2.46 |
| Strikes Absorbed/Minute | 6.81 | 2.57 |
| Takedown Average | 3.89 | 0.55 |
| Takedown Defense | 75 % | 52 % |
| Current Ranking | No. 5 | No. 9 |
| Fighting Out Of | Clovis, California | Houston, Texas |
Fight Analysis & Prediction
No. 5 Josh Hokit vs. No. 9 Derrick Lewis Ranked Heavyweight Bout Betting Odds
This is a classic matchup of youth versus experience. 28-year-old Josh Hokit (9-0) has yet to lose in his professional MMA career–but he’s also only taken on one respected fighter in Curtis Blaydes. He finished his first two UFC fights in a combined six minutes. But unsurprisingly, his win over Blaydes was the first of his career not to come prior to the final bell.
Coming at him will be one of the great gatekeepers in the sport in 41-year-old Derrick Lewis (29-13, 1 NC), a man who had already had 39 professional MMA bouts under his belt by the time Hokit got his MMA career started in October 2023.
Hokit is an excellent wrestler for a heavyweight, and as his 9+ significant strikes a minute suggest, he likes to stay busy. His quick hand speed can usually frustrate big heavyweights like Lewis, who has about 30 pounds on his opponent here. Lewis is also very poor when it comes to defending takedowns.
However, Lewis has shown an ability to fight smart. When he fought Blaydes (who is also a great wrestler at heavyweight) a few years ago, he stayed in a deep stance to avoid the takedown and bided his time until he found that knockout blow. He took a lot of damage, but Lewis is no stranger to the grit and grind of MMA.
The same can’t be said for Hokit. While he was definitely the winner against Blaydes, he took a lot of damage. He may land over nine significant shots a minute, but he also takes just under seven. And you do not want to be taking significant strikes from Lewis, who has some of the heaviest hands to ever grace an MMA octagon.
Last year against another massive undefeated favourite in Tallison Teixeira, Lewis shocked the MMA with a knockout just 35 seconds into the scrap. We don’t think that will happen so quickly here.
This may be one of the biggest fights of Lewis’ career. Hokit, meanwhile, is fighting in the biggest even of his career and it’s not even close.
Fighting on the south lawn of his wet dream Donald Trump’s house, the nerves are going to affect the 28-year-old. Previously, he fought on the preliminary card of a Fight Night, and on the early prelims at UFC 324 before moving up to the main card for the Blaydes fight at UFC 327.
Hokit will be in his head, he will overthink the strategy for this one (which should be to spam takedowns against Lewis, who is likely to tire out quickly if Hokit gets in strong top position), and he will try to land a big knockout for his favourite president. That will leave him open, and “The Black Beast” will get what could be the final signature knockout of his illustrious career.
Might as well get the extra value on Lewis to win via knockout as well, because there’s no way he wins this if it goes the distance. Lewis has not won via decision since the month before COVID hit in February 2020.
Best Bet: Derrick Lewis to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+400)
