World Cup 2026: Egypt vs New Zealand Odds, Best Bets & Prediction

Betway odds, up to date at the time of writing.

Egypt and New Zealand square off on June 22 in what has become one of the most anticipated Group G fixtures of the World Cup 2026, with all four teams level on one point after a dramatic first matchday. Belgium and Egypt shared a 1-1 draw in Seattle, while New Zealand and Iran played out an equally breathless tie that ended the same way. In a group this tight, another draw could effectively dash both sides’ hopes of advancement.

Mohamed Salah celebrated his 34th birthday with a pinpoint assist for Emam Ashour’s opener against Belgium, though a Lukaku-inspired own goal by Mohamed Hany in the 66th minute denied Egypt the win they deserved. Elijah Just announced himself on the World Cup stage with a brace against Iran, only for the All Whites to surrender their leads twice in a 2-2 draw. Both teams are hungry for three points and neither will hold back.

The Egyptian Pharaohs

Egypt’s pre-tournament campaign showed a team building steadily. A 4-0 dismantling of Saudi Arabia in March and a hard-fought 1-0 win over Russia in late May confirmed attacking depth and game management, while the goalless draw with Spain underlined their defensive discipline. The 2-1 defeat to Brazil was the one blemish. At the World Cup, Egypt confirmed their organizational quality by holding Belgium for more than an hour: Salah, operating 76 controlled minutes, provided the assist that opened the scoring, and Egypt led until the 66th minute before a single Lukaku substitution triggered a fortunate own goal. His presence as the creative fulcrum means Egypt will look to control tempo from the front, using Marmoush’s runs in behind to exploit the gaps New Zealand gave up repeatedly against Iran. Expect a measured Egypt lead followed by a second half where the Pharaohs manage the clock rather than chase a second goal.

 Probable lineup Egypt (4-2-3-1): Shobeir; Hany, Fathy, Ibrahim, Fatouh; Attia, Lasheen; Salah, Ashour, Zico; Marmoush.

New Zealand's All Whites

New Zealand swept through OFC qualifying with five wins from five, 29 goals scored and one conceded, finishing with a 3-0 final victory over New Caledonia. The quality gap to World Cup football was exposed in their warm-ups: a 4-0 loss to Haiti in Fort Lauderdale and a 1-0 defeat to England three days later raised genuine concerns. Matchday one flipped the narrative. Elijah Just, deployed wide behind captain Chris Wood, scored twice against Iran with composed finishes that showed genuine class, and Wood’s aerial threat at set pieces remains a factor throughout the group stage. The concern lies at the back: New Zealand surrendered two leads against Iran, and their second-half defensive shape weakens under sustained pressure. Against an Egypt side that builds patiently before striking, that vulnerability will be tested from the first whistle.

Probable lineup New Zealand (4-2-3-1): Crocombe; Payne, Surman, Boxall, Cacace; Bell, Stamenic; McCowatt, Singh, Just; Wood.

Betway and 888sport odds, correct at the time of writing

Egypt and New Zealand have no recorded official head-to-head meeting, making form and tactical profiles the sole basis for our analysis. The market places Egypt at around 59% implied probability; our estimate runs slightly higher at 62%, driven by Salah’s confirmed fitness and New Zealand’s demonstrated inability to hold a lead under sustained pressure in matchday one.

The implied probability for more than 2.5 goals sits at roughly 48% at current market odds; our estimate runs lower at around 43%, reflecting Egypt’s preference for controlled victories rather than high-scoring affairs. In our view, the market underestimates how decisively Egypt will dominate possession in this matchup, and at our bookmaker comparison, the Egypt win price remains the clearest call in Group G ahead of matchday two.

Egypt to Win: Odds of 1.57

The quality gap between CAF and OFC competition is documentable: Egypt qualified through a 54-nation confederation that includes Morocco, Senegal and Nigeria; New Zealand topped a six-nation Oceania group. That structural advantage makes their 1.57 price meaningful rather than inflated. Salah and Marmoush are capable of creating at least one clear chance per half, and Egypt’s backline showed against Belgium they can absorb pressure without conceding cheaply. Egypt to win at 1.57 is the recommended bet. For those seeking an additional angle, the under 2.5 goals market at 1.71 offers solid value: Egypt will not need more than one or two goals to win this, and New Zealand have shown more attacking ambition than defensive resilience in Group G so far.