Atlanta Falcons Week 1 Starting QB NFL Betting Odds & Predictions

The Atlanta Falcons just wrapped up their mandatory minicamp on June 18 after three days of training, but they still have the biggest question in all of football hanging over their heads: who will be their starting quarterback come Week 1 on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers?

The Falcons have four QBs on their roster, but undrafted rookie Jack Strand is unlikely to make the final 53-man roster and Trevor Siemian is unlikely to figure in the battle for the QB1 job. That will be a contest between veteran Tua Tagovailoa and youngster Michael Penix Jr.

Read on for the NFL betting odds for the Atlanta Falcons Week 1 Starting QB futures betting market as well as our analysis and prediction!

Atlanta Falcons Week 1 Starting QB NFL Betting Odds & Predictions

All betting odds provided by Betway.

Our Best Bet: Tua Tagovailoa (-180)

As the odds suggest, the veteran Tua Tagovailoa has the inside track on this job right now. Tagovailoa is a guy who has been a Pro Bowler, an NFL passing yards leader, an NFL passer rating leader, and an NFL completion percentage leader. And yet, he has not put together a proper season since that 2023 campaign when he was named to his only Pro Bowl.

New Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski, who one would think will be the deciding vote in this decision, recently said that he believes Tagovailoa has “innate” accuracy.

Stefanski, like Tagovailoa, is new to the Falcons this year, having been hired in January. That means that he has no prior relationship or connection to Michael Penix Jr., who was drafted by the previous regime.

Stefanski is only really seeing Tagovailoa right now with Penix still recovering from his November knee surgery, which is another massive advantage for the former No. 1 overall pick.

Tagovailoa does arrive with some baggage, however. If Penix was healthy, this would be a very different picture, which is a bad sign for the Alabama standout. Tagovailoa was so bad last year–he had 20 passing TDs and 23 interceptions and fumbles–was benched for the final three games of last season in favour of Quinn Ewers, Miami’s seventh-round pick in 2025.

That’s why the Falcons only had to give him a $1.215 million veteran minimum contract to get him: no one else was seemingly bidding, and the Dolphins had cut ties with him despite the fact that they now have to pay him $54 million not to play on South Beach in 2026.

Dark Horse Candidate: Michael Penix Jr. (+142)

And yet, even with all of that negative context surrounding Tagovailoa, he’s offering more certainty and reliability than Penix. As crazy as that is to say. Penix Jr. suffered another ACL tear in November of last year, resulting in his third major knee surgery since 2018.

He had gone five years without one from 2020-2025, so going down with another one last season will be a big blow to his own confidence in his body, but also the team’s confidence in his ability to be available.

Stefanski said “we’ll see” when asked if Penix would participate in minicamp. He didn’t. So now, it will be whether or not Penix can return for the start of Falcons training camp on July 31. That’s six weeks. So there’s still some time. But you have to think if Penix isn’t ready by then, Tagovailoa will have the Week 1 QB1 job sewn up, which make his -180 odds really appealing right now.

If Penix is ready, then the competition will likely be pretty wide open. But Tagovailoa has the experience edge, and it’s arguable whether Penix has the talent advantage: he was just 3-6 as a starter last year with a 88.5 passer rating, which is exactly the same number Tagovailoa put up in his worst season last year. If it’s the same talent level, why not opt for the experience?

These injuries usually take nine to 12 months to recover from, and Penix will be at about 8.5 when training camp gets started on the last day of July. That doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for a guy whose knees have already been operated on twice.