Minnesota Vikings Week 1 Starting QB NFL Betting Odds & Predictions

The Minnesota Vikings have had a rocky quarterback road over the last few years. They drafted J.J. McCarthy top 10 in 2024, only for him to miss his entire rookie season to injury, only for his backup Sam Darnold to put up a Pro Bowl season, only for Darnold to sign with the Seattle Seahawks and win a Super Bowl in 2025 while McCarthy imploded in his first real NFL year.

I told you, it was rocky. And while that could very well change very soon, it hasn’t done quite yet. The Vikings brought in embattled veteran and former No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray to battle McCarthy for the starting gig.

The team also still employs former No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz, though he won’t figure into the battle. With the team heading to training camp in about a month, Murray clearly has the edge according to oddsmakers, but does that mean McCarthy has no chance? Read on for the top NFL betting odds on who will end up starting Week 1 for the Vikings in 2026.

Minnesota Vikings Week 1 Starting QB NFL Betting Odds & Predictions

All betting odds provided by Betway.

The Favourite: Kyler Murray (-1,000)

Kyler Murray’s time in the desert with the Arizona Cardinals ended ignominiously. But there was never a doubt about the guy’s talent. Everyone knows he can sling it. The worry was more so about his mentality and even some questions about his durability. With such poor QB play across the league today, he will have had a ton of suitors when free agency opened in March.

And Murray didn’t waste any time, signing with the Vikings right away. And he didn’t just sign, he signed for the veteran bare minimum at $1.3 million. His last contract paid him over $46 million a year. Life comes at you fast.

But what signing that veteran minimum deal tells me is that he is willing to humble himself and re-learn some things about how he was approaching the game. He could have easily pushed for a $10 million and no one would have batted an eye. But he’s starting from scratch here. You’ve got to say it’s admirable.

But all that money stuff aside, purely based on talent and NFL experience, the minute he stepped in the door, Murray was the favourite for the starting job. And with his odds sitting at -1,000 here a month before training camp has even begun, it seems he’s made massive strides early. Bad news for J.J.

The Underdog: J.J. McCarthy (+600)

There’s no sugar-coating how poor McCarthy was last year. His 72.6 passer rating was the lowest in the NFL by a qualifying quarterback by a pretty significant margin. He threw more INTs (12) than TDs (11) and fumbled it (6) more than he ran it in with his legs (4).

But still, there’s a lot of potential in McCarthy, not to mention the draft capital the team spent in 2024. He has been receiving praise from coaches and teammates about his improvements as a pure passer, but will that be enough to win a QB battle against a guy who was already a pretty good pure passer.

Worryingly, several different Vikings beat writers have written about a chasm in talent between Murray and McCarthy. ESPN’s Kevin Seifert said that the talent level was “not close” between the two and that he doesn’t believe it’s a real competition. Sports Illustrated’s Will Ragatz said that Murray’s passing ability makes it “hard to imagine” McCarthy winning this fight.

One positive for McCarthy: at least he’ll know where he stands sooner rather than later. The Athletic’s Alec Lewis reported that head coach Kevin O’Connell intends to make his decision about his starting QB before the end of training camp.

With the odds as they are now and the reports coming in the way they are, this is a stay away. And it seems it would take a catastrophe from Murray to change that. Unless you think Carson Wentz can turn back the clock to 2017 and shock ‘em all, of course.