2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Early Betting Odds & Best Bets
All betting odds provided by Betway.
| Team | NFL CPOY 2026 Odds |
| Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC) | +125 |
| Kyler Murray, QB (MIN) | +1,000 |
| Micah Parsons, QB (GB) | +1,200 |
| Daniel Jones, QB (IND) | +1,400 |
| Malik Nabers, WR (NYG) | +1,500 |
| Fred Warner, LB (SF) | +2,000 |
| George Kittle, TE (SF) | +2,000 |
| Nick Bosa, Edge (SF) | +2,000 |
| Garrett Wilson, WR (NYJ) | +2,500 |
| Malike Willis, QB (MIA) | +2,500 |
| Travis Hunter, CB (JAX) | +2,500 |
| Tucker Kraft, TE (GB) | +2,500 |
The Favorite: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+125)
No surprises here, as Patrick Mahomes was the best player to miss significant time last season due to injury. Considering he only missed three games in 2025, we’re not sure he should really be eligible for this award—but if sports betting sites say so, we’re not questioning it. If Mahomes even has an average season by his standards (about 4,500 yards, 33 TDs, and a 100 passer rating) he should be able to claim this one easily. We would suggest jumping on these odds while they’re still in the plus range.
The Best of the Rest: Kyler Murray, QB, Minnesota Vikings (+1,000)
However, +125 odds are not exactly ideal when you’re talking about a futures market. You’ve got to wait nine months to get results on this, so usually you want a little more value. If that sounds like you, may we interest you in Kyler Murray? He’s coming into an excellent situation in a potent offense with an extremely talented weapons cache.
Kevin O’Connell turned Kirk Cousins from a regular starter into a perennial Pro Bowler, and we think he can do something similar with Murray, who has a lot more talent and youth than Cousins did. If Mahomes doesn’t come through, Murray could win this award with a similar year to the one he had in 2024 in Arizona (3,800 yards, 21 TDs, 93.5 passer rating), though we’d expect him to blow past those numbers if he gets his head screwed on properly.
We don’t see why he can’t reach the heights Sam Darnold did in this offense two years ago: 4,300 yards, 35 TDs, 102 passer rating. Murray would be a cinch to win this if he puts up numbers like that, especially considering Mahomes played nine more games than him last year.
Dark Horse Candidate: The 49ers Trio (all at +2,000 odds)
If you want still more value, there is a trio of 49ers that could make it two straight years a San Francisco player has won this award (Christian McCaffrey won last year). It should really be no surprise considering their insane injury luck (or lack thereof) over the last two years.
George Kittle missed six games last year, and if he can stay healthy, he’s likely to put up another All-Pro campaign. He has been named an All-Pro in five of six seasons where he’s started 14+ games.
Edge rusher Nick Bosa played just three games last season, and that means his recovery timeline is much earlier than some other guys on this list. He’s going to be 100 percent healthy and exploding out of the gates in September. 15+ sacks would force voters to consider him against the QBs in this field.
Middle linebacker Fred Warner missed 11 games last season, and if these awards weren’t all completely juiced for offensive players, he would be one of the favorites. He’s been the best ‘backer (and arguably, defender) in the league for the past five years, picking up four First-Team All-Pro nods in that time.
If he plays a full season, he’s likely to get another All-Pro honor, but he’d have to have a historic season to win this award from his underappreciated position in the middle of the defense—despite the fact that the middle linebacker is the QB of the defense. Tedy Bruschi is the only linebacker to win this award, doing so in 2005 after returning from a stroke. Warner’s ankle injury was bad, but it was no stroke.
