2024 Copa America Top Goalscorer Favourites and Betting Guide

After 3 long years, Copa America is back, and this time it’s taking place in the USA. As the best South American football teams face off, the question is - who will be the Copa America top goalscorer in this tournament? Can Lionel Messi repeat, or will it be another striker like Martinez, Diaz, or Jesus?

The action isn’t just taking place on the pitch - get in the game and bet on Copa America and feel the excitement in a whole new way.

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Who Are the 2024 Copa America Top Goalscorer Betting Favorites?

I expect there are several strikers that will contend for the top goalscorer title in this year’s Copa America. When making outright bets on soccer, you can’t just look at the player, but at the team as well. A great goal scorer on a bad team won’t have great odds, because they won’t play as many games. This is why the players with the best Copa America odds all platy for Argentina or Brazil.

We are still a few months away from the Copa America and most betting sites haven’t released the official odds yet for Top Goalscorer. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be prepared for when the Copa America betting is open. The odds aren’t set yet, but here the early on favorites.

Player

PowerPlay

BetPlays

TonyBet

Player

Lionel Messi (Argentina)

PowerPlay

Not Listed

BetPlays

Not Listed

TonyBet

Not Listed

Player

Lautaro Martinez (Argentina)

PowerPlay

Not Listed

BetPlays

Not Listed

TonyBet

Not Listed

Player

Gabriel Jesus (Brazil)

PowerPlay

Not Listed

BetPlays

Not Listed

TonyBet

Not Listed

Player

Vinicius Junior (Brazil)

PowerPlay

Not Listed

BetPlays

Not Listed

TonyBet

Not Listed

Player

Julian Alvarez (Argentina)

PowerPlay

Not Listed

BetPlays

Not Listed

TonyBet

Not Listed

Player

Darwin Nuñez (Uruguay)

PowerPlay

Not Listed

BetPlays

Not Listed

TonyBet

Not Listed

Player

Luis Suárez (Uruguay)

PowerPlay

Not Listed

BetPlays

Not Listed

TonyBet

Not Listed

Player

Rodrygo (Brazil)

PowerPlay

Not Listed

BetPlays

Not Listed

TonyBet

Not Listed

Player

Alexis Sanchez (Chile)

PowerPlay

Not Listed

BetPlays

Not Listed

TonyBet

Not Listed

Player

Ben Brereton Diaz (Chile)

PowerPlay

Not Listed

BetPlays

Not Listed

TonyBet

Not Listed

Copa 2024 Top Goal scorer Favorites

I don’t completely agree with the oddsmakers when it comes to my personal top 5 favorites.  

  • Lionel Messi – Argentina

Messi is one of the greatest footballers I’ve ever watched, and he always brings something extra when playing for his country. He was tied for the most goals with 4 in the 2021 Copa America, and if he can match the number, he’ll be tied for the all-time record for goals scored in Copa America play. At 36 years old, this is probably his final Copa America, and I expect him to leave it all out on the field.

  • Luis Diaz - Colombia

Diaz was tied with Messi with 4 goals in the previous Copa America. At just 27 years old, the explosive winger is an excellent ball controller with a powerful shot. As we’ve seen with his play for Liverpool in the  Premier League, he can score goals in bunches and at clutch moments.

  • Lautaro Martínez – Argentina

The captain of Inter Milan has a knack for putting the ball in the net. One of the benefits he has when playing for Argentina is a lot of the attention from the opponents’ defense is focused on Messi, opening up scoring opportunities. He had 3 goals in the 2021 Copa America, as a young 23 year old, now with a bit more experience and strength, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him score a few more.

  • Gabriel Jesus – Brazil

While no one ever wants to see a superstar get injured, losing Neymar for the entire tournament will mean more chance for Jesus. Look for much of the offense to be focused on his skillset, allowing him to get quality scoring chances. He’s no stranger to scoring – with 4 goals in 6 games in the ’23-‘24 UEFA Champions League to go along with 15 goals over the past seasons at Arsenal, he’s proving to be one of the best young players coming out of South America.

  • Vinicius Junior – Brazil

The 23 year old phenom has made a name for himself with excellent sense of pace, dribbling ability, and finishing with the ball in the net. He scored 12 goals for Madrid in La Liga play and added another 3 goals in 5 games in UEFA Champions League. Junior plays well alongside Jesus, and coupled with Neymar’s injury, he should get plenty of chances to be the Top Goalscorer.

Last Copa Top Goal Scorers

I think it’s a good idea to look back at the previous Top Goalscorer winners and the number of goals they needed to get the trophy.

Year

Top Scorer

Number of Goals

Year

2021

Top Scorer

Lionel Messi (Argentina)

Luis Diaz (Colombia)

Number of Goals

4

Year

2019

Top Scorer

Everton (Brazil)

Paolo Guerreo (Peru)

Number of Goals

3

Year

2016

Top Scorer

Eduardo Vargas (Chile)

Number of Goals

6

Year

2015

Top Scorer

Eduardo Vargas (Chile)

Paolo Guerreo (Peru)

Number of Goals

4

Year

2011

Top Scorer

Paolo Guerreo (Peru)

Number of Goals

5

Year

2007

Top Scorer

Robinho (Brazil)

Number of Goals

6

Year

2004

Top Scorer

Adriano (Brazil)

Number of Goals

7

Year

2001

Top Scorer

Víctor Aristizábal (Colombia)

Number of Goals

6

Year

1999

Top Scorer

Rivaldo (Brazil)

Ronaldo (Brazil)

Number of Goals

5

Year

1997

Top Scorer

Luis Hernández (Mexico)

Number of Goals

6

How to Bet on The Copa America Top Goalscorer

Understanding how to bet on Copa America Top Goalscorer is very straightforward – who will have the most goals at the end of the tournament. While people often use the Golden Boot and Top Goalscorer interchangeably, they are actually different. There can only be one Golden Boot winner, if there’s a tie, they look at other factors such as assists and then minutes played.

The Top Goalscorer can end in a dead heat, and when this happens, your stake and payout are divided by the number of winners. For example, in 2021, if you bet $30 on Messi with 10/1 odds and he tied Luis Diaz with 4 goals, your stake would be reduced to $15, and the payout would be $150 instead of $300.

Copa America 2024 starts in June, and while bookmakers have already released odds for outright and future bets, the odds for Top Goalscorer won’t be released until a few weeks before the tournament. This is to prevent bets on players who are injured during their regular league play or other unforeseen circumstances that cause them to miss the tournament.

Top Goalscorer Betting strategy

When betting on soccer in general, and the Copa America specifically, you need to come in with a good strategy. It’s easy to just put your money down on a superstar like Messi or your favorite player, but it’s not always the best bet. 

Here are some things to consider:

  • Player stats: It doesn’t matter if they’re playing in the Premier League, La Liga or MLS, check out how the player has been performing all season. Are they scoring goals, getting any scoring opportunities, or are they riding the bench. This is a key indicator of their fitness, level of play, injury concerns, and mindset going into the tournament.
  • Group stage dynamics: The first round of the Copa America is a round robin with teams divided into 4 groups. Analyze the strength of the teams in each group to see if there’s a particular defensive or goaltending weakness that a certain player can exploit for a few goals.
  • Knockout stage path: After the round robin is a single loss elimination round. For this reason, you need to bet on a player from a good team with a chance to advance to the championship round, giving them more games to score goals.
  • Style of team play: South American football is known for its flair, pace, and technical skill, which can favor forwards who thrive in open, fast-paced games. Teams with a strong attacking setup and those who dominate possession tend to create more scoring chances for their forwards.

Stats

As I mentioned earlier, it’s important to see how the top players are performing this season. However, in my opinion, the most important stat is based on historical data. 

The past 10 Top Goalscorers in Copa America play have played in the championship game. Some have won it all while others were runner up, but the important thing is they got that extra game. Avoid a player from a team with no realistic chance of winning it all, more likely than not your bet will be closed after the opening round. 

Rules

  • Goals That Count: All goals during regular time and extra time count towards a player's tally. Own goals are excluded.
  • Penalties: Goals from the penalty spot during regular or extra time count. However, goals scored in a penalty shootout after a match do not.
  • Tiebreakers: In case of a tie, dead heat rules apply.

Betting on the Underdogs for Top Goalscorer

I’m usually a fan of underdog bets, because of the chance for larger payouts. However, when it comes to Top Goalscorer in a tournament like this, I tend to stick with the favorites. With all due respect, picking a longshot from Honduras or Trinidad isn’t a smart bet.

As I mentioned before, you need a player from a team with a chance to win. So now, we’re looking at the 3rd or 4th best goal scorer on the top teams.

The only reason these players would have a chance is because it’s such a short tournament, and 6 goals should be all you need. However, I would advise against it. If you want to improve your odds, don’t bet on the top choices, like Messi, Diaz, or Martinez, and focus on the lower half of the top 10, as they still have a legit shot.

Other Popular Copa America Betting Markets

  • Outright Winner: The classic, who will win it all bet, is probably the most popular bet on a soccer tournament. It’s great because it doesn’t matter whether you’re a longtime fan or just looking to put down some money. You don’t need to know the ins and outs, just pick a winner.
  • Group Winners: Each of the four groups is like a mini tournament. You can analyze the 4 teams’ strengths and weaknesses, and come up with a solid bet, and if you sense an upset from one of the weaker teams, you can get good odds on that bet.
  • Match Betting: This is a good bet if you want to out some action on a specific game. There’s no need to wait a few days or a month to see how your bet turns out.
  • Live Betting: If you’re into instant gratification, get in on the in-play betting. If you bet at a sportsbook with live streaming, you can watch the game and make bets from a single interface. It’s probably the most exciting way to bet on Copa America. Live bets can include over/under, next to score, penalties, and more.

Interesting Goal Scoring Facts in Copa America History

The South American Copa America initially started back in 1916. For the first 10 years it was an annual tournament. Since then, at different points over the past 100 years there have been periods when it took place every 2, 3, or 4 years.

  • All-time leading goal scorers. Brazil’s Zizinho and Argentina’s Mendez each have scored 17 goals in their Copa America careers. Messi is close behind with 13 and has a chance to tie or pass them in 2024.
  • Fastest goal: Sergio Agüero scored for Argentina against Ecuador in the 2011 Copa America, finding the net in just 24 seconds.
  • Most goals in a match: Evaristo de Macedo scored 5 goals for Brazil against Colombia in 1957.
  • Top Goalscorer in the Fewest Matches: Jair da Rosa Pinto achieved an impressive feat in the 1949 Copa America, becoming the top goalscorer of the tournament with 9 goals in just 8 matches.
  • Most team goals in a tournament: Brazil found the back of the net 46 times on their way to winning the 1949 Copa America championship.

The Best Sportsbooks for Betting on the Top Goalscorer

Finding the best sportsbook for betting on Copa America markets is important. We did the research and found the best sportsbook, with competitive odds, live betting, and a variety of payment methods.

Cameron is a 2020 graduate from the University of Southern California’s Journalism program. He is an avid sports fan and bettor, whose favourite teams include the Toronto Raptors, and the Chicago Bears. Cameron has been writing about and following sports since the age of 10, when he first fell in love with the NFL and NBA.