2024 Copa America Top Goalscorer Favourites and Betting Guide

After 3 long years, Copa America is back, and this time it’s taking place in the USA. As the best South American football teams face off, the question is - who will be the Copa America top goalscorer in this tournament? Can Lionel Messi repeat, or will it be another striker like Martinez, Vinicius Junior, or Rodrygo?

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I expect there are several strikers that will contend for the top goalscorer title in this year’s Copa America. When making outright bets on soccer, you can’t just look at the player, but at the team as well. A great goal scorer on a bad team won’t have great odds, because they won’t play as many games. This is why the players with the best Copa America odds all platy for Argentina or Brazil.

The tournament is almost here, and the top betting sites have released the outright odds for the Top Goalscorer. It's time to place your bets and get ready for an exciting tournament. Here are the latest Copa America betting favorites to watch for:

Copa 2024 Top Goal scorer Favorites

I don’t completely agree with the oddsmakers when it comes to my personal top 5 favorites.  

1. Lionel Messi – Argentina
   Messi is one of the greatest footballers I’ve ever watched, and he always brings something extra when playing for his country. He was tied for the most goals with 4 in the 2021 Copa America, and if he can match the number, he’ll be tied for the all-time record for goals scored in Copa America play. At 36 years old, this is probably his final Copa America, and I expect him to leave it all out on the field.
2. Rodrygo – Brazil
   Rodrygo has been a rising star for Real Madrid and the Brazilian national team. At just 23 years old, he has already made significant contributions in La Liga and the UEFA Champions League. In the 2023-2024 season, Rodrygo scored 10 goals in La Liga and added another 5 goals in the Champions League. His quick pace, dribbling skills, and precise finishing make him a formidable contender for the top goalscorer title in the Copa America.
3. Lautaro Martínez – Argentina
   The captain of Inter Milan has a knack for putting the ball in the net. One of the benefits he has when playing for Argentina is a lot of the attention from the opponents’ defense is focused on Messi, opening up scoring opportunities. He had 3 goals in the 2021 Copa America, as a young 23 year old, now with a bit more experience and strength, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him score a few more.
4. Darwin Núñez – Uruguay
   Darwin Núñez has been a standout player for Liverpool in the Premier League, demonstrating his physical presence and goal-scoring capabilities. In the 2023-2024 season, Núñez scored 13 goals in the Premier League and added 4 goals in the UEFA Champions League. His strength, speed, and aerial ability make him a significant threat in the Copa America, and he is poised to make a big impact for Uruguay.
5. Vinicius Junior – Brazil 
   The 23 year old phenom has made a name for himself with excellent sense of pace, dribbling ability, and finishing with the ball in the net. He scored 12 goals for Madrid in La Liga play and added another 3 goals in 5 games in UEFA Champions League. Junior plays well alongside Jesus, and coupled with Neymar’s injury, he should get plenty of chances to be the Top Goalscorer.

Last Copa Top Goal Scorers

I think it’s a good idea to look back at the previous Top Goalscorer winners and the number of goals they needed to get the trophy.

Understanding how to bet on Copa America Top Goalscorer is very straightforward – who will have the most goals at the end of the tournament. While people often use the Golden Boot and Top Goalscorer interchangeably, they are actually different. There can only be one Golden Boot winner, if there’s a tie, they look at other factors such as assists  and then minutes played. 

The Top Goalscorer can end in a dead heat, and when this happens, your stake and payout are divided by the number of winners. For example, if you bet $100 on Messi 2ith 4.00 odds and finishes the Copa America tied with Vinicius Junior for the most goals, your stake would be reduced to $50, and the payout would be calculated as follows: $50 x 4.00 = $200. So, instead of winning $400 (your original $100 stake plus $300 profit), you would win $200 (your reduced $50 stake plus $150 profit).

Copa America 2024 starts in June, and most bookmakers have released their initial odds for the matches and outright bets. Keep in mind that the odds will continue to change as we get closer to the tournament, based on how the guys are playing, injuries, and other unforeseen circumstances.

When betting on soccer in general, and the Copa America specifically, you need to come in with a good strategy. It’s easy to just put your money down on a superstar like Messi or your favorite player, but it’s not always the best bet. 

Here are some things to consider:

• Player stats: It doesn’t matter if they’re playing in the Premier League, La Liga or MLS, check out how the player has been performing all season. Are they scoring goals, getting any scoring opportunities, or are they riding the bench. This is a key indicator of their fitness, level of play, injury concerns, and mindset going into the tournament.
• Group stage dynamics: The first round of the Copa America is a round robin with teams divided into 4 groups. Analyze the strength of the teams in each group to see if there’s a particular defensive or goaltending weakness that a certain player can exploit for a few goals.
• Knockout stage path: After the round robin is a single loss elimination round. For this reason, you need to bet on a player from a good team with a chance to advance to the championship round, giving them more games to score goals.
• Style of team play: South American football is known for its flair, pace, and technical skill, which can favor forwards who thrive in open, fast-paced games. Teams with a strong attacking setup and those who dominate possession tend to create more scoring chances for their forwards.

Stats

As I mentioned earlier, it’s important to see how the top players are performing this season. However, in my opinion, the most important stat is based on historical data. 

The past 10 Top Goalscorers in Copa America play have played in the championship game. Some have won it all while others were runner up, but the important thing is they got that extra game. Avoid a player from a team with no realistic chance of winning it all, more likely than not your bet will be closed after the opening round. 

Rules

• Goals That Count: All goals during regular time and extra time count towards a player's tally. Own goals are excluded.
• Penalties: Goals from the penalty spot during regular or extra time count. However, goals scored in a penalty shootout after a match do not.
• Tiebreakers: In case of a tie, dead heat rules apply.

I’m usually a fan of underdog bets, because of the chance for larger payouts. However, when it comes to Top Goalscorer in a tournament like this, I tend to stick with the favorites. With all due respect, picking a longshot from Honduras or Trinidad isn’t a smart bet.

As I mentioned before, you need a player from a team with a chance to win. So now, we’re looking at the 3rd or 4th best goal scorer on the top teams.

The only reason these players would have a chance is because it’s such a short tournament, and 6 goals should be all you need. However, I would advise against it. If you want to improve your odds, don’t bet on the top choices, like Messi, Diaz, or Martinez, and focus on the lower half of the top 10, as they still have a legit shot.

• Outright Winner: The classic, who will win it all bet, is probably the most popular bet on a soccer tournament. It’s great because it doesn’t matter whether you’re a longtime fan or just looking to put down some money. You don’t need to know the ins and outs, just pick a winner.
• Group Winners: Each of the four groups is like a mini tournament. You can analyze the 4 teams’ strengths and weaknesses, and come up with a solid bet, and if you sense an upset from one of the weaker teams, you can get good odds on that bet.
• Match Betting: This is a good bet if you want to out some action on a specific game. There’s no need to wait a few days or a month to see how your bet turns out.
• Live Betting: If you’re into instant gratification, get in on the in-play betting. If you bet at a sportsbook with live streaming, you can watch the game and make bets from a single interface. It’s probably the most exciting way to bet on Copa America. Live bets can include over/under, next to score, penalties, and more.

The South American Copa America initially started back in 1916. For the first 10 years it was an annual tournament. Since then, at different points over the past 100 years there have been periods when it took place every 2, 3, or 4 years.

• All-time leading goal scorers. Brazil’s Zizinho and Argentina’s Mendez each have scored 17 goals in their Copa America careers. Messi is close behind with 13 and has a chance to tie or pass them in 2024.
• Fastest goal: Sergio Agüero scored for Argentina against Ecuador in the 2011 Copa America, finding the net in just 24 seconds.
• Most goals in a match: Evaristo de Macedo scored 5 goals for Brazil against Colombia in 1957.
• Top Goalscorer in the Fewest Matches: Jair da Rosa Pinto achieved an impressive feat in the 1949 Copa America, becoming the top goalscorer of the tournament with 9 goals in just 8 matches.
• Most team goals in a tournament: Brazil found the back of the net 46 times on their way to winning the 1949 Copa America championship.

Finding the best sportsbook for betting on Copa America markets is important. We did the research and found the best sportsbook, with competitive odds, live betting, and a variety of payment methods.