World Cup 2026: Paraguay vs Australia Odds, Best Bets & Prediction

Betway odds, current at time of writing and subject to change without notice.

Paraguay and Australia square off for second place in Group D, in Vancouver, in a straight knockout. The form behind our group-stage soccer picks confirms it: few games at this stage are this clear-cut.

Both teams have three points, but Australia hold the edge: a draw is enough thanks to a better goal difference, while Paraguay are condemned to win. The context pushes the Socceroos to defend what they have.

The Paraguayan side

Paraguay revived their hopes by beating Turkey 1-0, after a heavy 1-4 loss to the United States. Gustavo Alfaro's side rely on solidity and physical commitment, but will have to manage without Miguel Almiron, suspended after his red card. Losing their playmaker seriously complicates their build-up.

Stripped of their main source of creativity and forced to win, Paraguay will have to take unusual risks. Antonio Sanabria will carry the attacking burden. That need to win without Almiron sits at the heart of how we read this game.

Team news: Miguel Almiron is suspended after a red card, a major blow to Paraguay's creativity. Antonio Sanabria leads the line in a must-win game.

Probable lineup Paraguay (4-2-3-1): Gill; Caceres, Gustavo Gomez, Alderete, Junior Alonso; Cubas, Galarza; Sanabria, Enciso, Ramon Sosa; Pitta.

The Australian side

Australia launched their tournament perfectly with a 2-0 win over Turkey, before falling 2-0 to the United States. Tony Popovic's side are well organized and dangerous in transition, led by Jackson Irvine in midfield. A simple draw is enough for the Socceroos to confirm their qualification.

That context is decisive: a team needing only a point has every reason to sit deep and close the spaces. Against a weakened Paraguay forced to attack, Australia can lean on their compact block. That scenario feeds our reading of a closed match. With qualification on the line and only one of them able to advance through a win, we expect a tense, low-tempo contest decided by fine margins.

Team news: Australia have no notable absences. A draw secures qualification, so Popovic's side are expected to prioritize defensive control.

Probable lineup Australia (5-4-1): Beach; Italiano, Circati, Souttar, Burgess, Bos; Leckie, O'Neill, Okon-Engstler, Velupillay; Toure.

Betway and 888sport odds, correct at the time of writing

We lean towards a closed, cagey game in which Australia manage the draw that qualifies them. The two nations have no significant head-to-head history, so the analysis rests on recent form and context.

The market names no clear favourite: Paraguay sit at roughly 36% to win (odds of 2.80), Australia at 27%. Our estimate gives the draw the highest probability (38%), in line with an Australia defending its position and a Paraguay without Almiron.

In our view, the market underestimates Australia's defensive profile, needing only a point and set up to smother a Paraguay without a creator. The implied probability of Under 2.5 goals at 1.35 is around 74%, in tune with two low-scoring teams. On our sportsbook reviews, the differences in odds on this game are worth comparing.

Draw: at odds of 2.15

Our main bet is the draw. Australia qualify with a point and will sit deep, while Paraguay, without Almiron, struggle to create. A 0-0 or 1-1 is highly plausible between two teams with low attacking output, particularly with Australia content to keep things tight.

At 2.15, the draw offers real value in this context of asymmetric stakes. As a complementary angle, Under 2.5 goals comes in around 1.35 on the market, consistent with the expected caution, but our firm pick remains the draw.