World Cup 2026: Netherlands vs Tunisia Odds, Best Bets & Prediction

Betway odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Netherlands head into the final Group F round knowing a positive result seals top spot and the more favourable knockout route, after a 2-2 draw with Japan and an emphatic 5-1 win over Sweden. Tunisia, by contrast, are already out, having lost 5-1 to Sweden and 4-0 to Japan, a campaign so poor it cost coach Sabri Lamouchi his job mid-tournament. This is the final round of the group stage, and the stakes could hardly be more lopsided.

The Netherlands side

Ronald Koeman’s Netherlands have looked comfortable, with Cody Gakpo, Tijjani Reijnders and Ryan Gravenberch giving the side control and goals, and captain Virgil van Dijk anchoring the back line. Memphis Depay, recovered from a thigh problem, offers another attacking option. The 5-1 dismantling of Sweden showed how quickly this team can turn dominance into goals when given space.

The complication for backers is rotation. With top spot the only thing left to play for, Koeman may rest key men ahead of the knockout rounds, which could blunt the Dutch edge at a near-unbackable -750. Even a second-string Netherlands, though, should carry far too much for Tunisia, and the more they attack, the more the goals markets come into play.

Probable lineup, Netherlands (4-3-3): Verbruggen; Dumfries, van Dijk, van Hecke, van de Ven; Gravenberch, de Jong, Reijnders; Gakpo, Malen, Brobbey.

The Tunisia side

Tunisia arrive eliminated and under new management: Sabri Lamouchi was sacked after the opening defeat and replaced by the vastly experienced Hervé Renard on June 16. Renard has had little time to reshape a side that has conceded nine goals in two games and scored just once. Goalkeeper Aymen Dahmen and midfielder Ellyes Skhiri are among the few to emerge with credit.

Playing only for pride, Tunisia may show more freedom now that the pressure of qualification has lifted, and Renard will want a performance to build on. But the gulf in quality is stark, and a leaky defence facing even a rotated Netherlands is a serious mismatch. Their realistic hope is to keep the score respectable rather than to spring a shock.

Probable lineup, Tunisia (4-2-3-1): Dahmen; Rekik, Talbi, Bronn, Valery; Skhiri, Mejbri; Abdi, Tounekti, Saad; Ben Slimane.

Betway and 888sport odds, correct at the time of writing

This has the look of a comfortable Netherlands win, the only real questions being the margin and how heavily Koeman rotates. Tunisia have been the group’s weakest side by some distance and now face a Dutch team that put five past Sweden. We expect the Netherlands to win at a canter, and with an eliminated opponent unlikely to defend with discipline, goals should follow.

The market makes the Netherlands around 88% to win before normalization, and we have little quarrel with that, trimming only slightly to 82% for rotation risk. With the result close to a foregone conclusion, the value is not on the lopsided moneyline but on how the game plays out, specifically the number of goals.

Tunisia have conceded nine goals in two matches, both of which sailed over 2.5, while the Netherlands have scored seven. The implied 71.4% on Over 2.5 at around -250 is short, but the underlying logic is hard to argue with: an eliminated side that cannot defend against a Dutch team that scores in bunches. Across our bookmaker comparison, the goals line remains the soundest read.

Over 2.5 Goals: -250

Our best bet is Over 2.5 Goals at -250. The price is short, but it reflects a genuine mismatch: Tunisia have shipped nine goals in two games against Sweden and Japan, and the Netherlands have the firepower to add to that tally even if Koeman rotates. Both of Tunisia’s group games comfortably cleared this total, and an eliminated side rarely tightens up at the back. The straight total is the cleanest way to back the obvious.